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Major League Soccer

New York RB - Nashville SC

08/19/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
New York RB
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Nashville SC
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NYRNS

New York RB

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.05
Jorge Ruvalcaba on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 95% available)

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.3 season average)
-0.21
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.14
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Ahmed Qasem on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    New York RB: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    New York RB: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    New York RB with Gustav Berggren: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Nashville SC with Reed Baker-Whiting: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

29%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Table standings: Undisputed league leaders Nashville SC (43 points) face struggling New York RB (25 points)
  • Tactical output: New York RB averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Nashville SC's average of 3.2
  • Offensive-defensive matchup: Nashville SC score an average of 2.0 goals away from home, while New York RB concede 1.8 goals per home match
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time: Nashville SC face a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive instability: New York RB concede an average of 2.16 goals per match this season
Overview

New York RB (8th place, 25 points) host league leaders Nashville SC (1st place, 43 points)

Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 12:30 AM

Sports Illustrated Stadium is the venue for this clash

Form

Form-String New York RB: WLLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Form-String Nashville SC: WWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

New York RB recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches

Nashville SC achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss during this period

Statistics

New York RB score an average of 1.58 goals and concede 2.16 goals per match

At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded

Nashville SC score an average of 2.05 goals and concede 0.79 goals

Away from home Nashville average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in history between these teams

These resulted in 1 home win, 1 away win, and 2 draws

The last head-to-head match on May 15, 2025 ended 1:2

Key Players

Julian Hall scored 9 goals and provided 3 assists this season

Cade Cowell has 2 goals and 6 assists

Emil Forsberg recorded 3 goals and 4 assists

Sam Surridge scored 12 goals this season

Hany Mukhtar has 8 goals and 4 assists

Cristian Espinoza recorded 3 goals and 7 assists

Goalkeepers

Ethan Horvath represents New York RB with 1 clean sheet

Brian Schwake represents Nashville SC with 8 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

An average of 3.4 goals per match are scored at this venue

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