šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

New York City - Philadelphia Union

08/16/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
New York City
1.6
Total xG
3.1
Philadelphia Union
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
NYCPU

New York City

Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau not in squad (13 goals, 3 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 44% available)

Philadelphia Union

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.50
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.25
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.25
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.11
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York City: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    New York City with Seymour Reid: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    New York City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

27%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Absence of NicolĆ”s FernĆ”ndez Mercau limits New York City with only 45% of their seasonal goal production available
  • Tactical offense: Philadelphia Union averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches, showing high offensive threat
  • High-scoring venue history: Yankee Stadium matches historically produce an average of 4.4 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Severely reduced home attack with only 45% of the active goals share available due to a key player's absence
  • Philadelphia Union struggles defensively on the road, conceding an average of 2.18 goals per away game
Overview

New York City (7th place, 26 points) faces Philadelphia Union (14th place, 16 points)

Major League Soccer match at Yankee Stadium on August 16, 2026, 10:00 PM

Both teams aim for crucial points in the standings

Form

New York City shows a form of DLWWD with 2 wins and 2 draws

Philadelphia Union enters with a DLWWW form string

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The visitors travel with a current streak of 3 consecutive wins

Statistics

New York City scores an average of 1.72 goals per match this season

Philadelphia Union scores 1.39 goals on average and concedes 2.18 goals per away game

At home, New York City averages 1.77 goals scored

Head-to-Head

There are 5 head-to-head matches recorded

New York City holds 3 wins compared to 2 wins for Philadelphia Union

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for New York City on March 1, 2026

Key Players

AgustĆ­n Ojeda recorded 5 goals and 4 assists in 18 matches

AndrƩs Perea has 1 goal and 1 assist in 8 appearances

Keaton Parks scored 2 goals in 14 games

Milan Iloski is the top scorer for the visitors with 10 goals in 18 matches

Frankie Westfield contributed 4 assists in 14 appearances

Kai Wagner recorded 3 assists in 3 matches

Goalkeepers

Matt Freese played 18 matches with an average rating of 6.92

Andre Blake started 17 games with a rating of 6.68

Both keepers have registered 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at Yankee Stadium

Yankee Stadium matches historically average 4.4 goals per game

The mathematical prediction shows a 60% probability for over 2.5 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.