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Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids - Los Angeles FC

08/20/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Colorado Rapids
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Los Angeles FC
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CRLAF

Colorado Rapids

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.47
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Dante Sealy on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Georgi Minoungou on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Lucas Herrington not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Los Angeles FC

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.23
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Denis Bouanga on the bench (10 goals, 4 assists)
Heung-min Son on the bench (4 goals, 8 assists)
Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
75% of goal output missing (only 40% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colorado Rapids with Wayne Frederick: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Colorado Rapids: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Colorado Rapids: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Los Angeles FC with Jude Terry: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.8 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Los Angeles FC: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

29%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Squad weakness for Los Angeles FC: With Denis Bouanga, Heung-min Son, and Mark Delgado missing, only 40% of their usual goal-scoring threat is available
  • Tactical dominance: Colorado Rapids recently averaged 58% possession and 15.8 total shots, whereas Los Angeles FC averaged only 39% possession
  • Strong home defense: Colorado Rapids concedes an average of only 0.75 goals per game at home this season
Risk Factors
  • Low scoring venue: Matches at Dick's Sporting Goods Park average only 1.6 goals with a low Over 2.5 rate of 20%
  • Colorado's declining goal production: The Rapids currently average only 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.6
  • Away goal threat: Los Angeles FC still averages 1.86 goals per away match despite their squad list challenges
Overview

Colorado Rapids host Los Angeles FC at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 3:30 AM

Colorado is in 8th place with 25 points, while Los Angeles FC is in 3rd place with 34 points

Form

Colorado Rapids form: LWLWW

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Colorado recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Los Angeles FC form: WWWDL

Los Angeles FC recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Statistics

Colorado scores an average of 1.53 goals and concedes 1.32 goals per match

At home, Colorado is defensively solid, conceding only 0.75 goals per game

Los Angeles FC scores 1.75 goals and concedes 1.00 goal on average

Away from home, Los Angeles FC concedes an average of 1.43 goals

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in history

1 win for Colorado Rapids, 2 wins for Los Angeles FC, and 2 draws

Goal difference stands at 5:10 in favor of Los Angeles FC

The last duel on April 23, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Rafael Navarro leads Colorado's attack with 10 goals and 3 assists

Paxten Aaronson supports in midfield with 4 goals and 5 assists

For Los Angeles FC, Mathieu ChoiniĆØre is active with 2 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Nicolas Hansen starts in goal for Colorado with a season rating of 7.05

Cabral Carter guards the net for Los Angeles FC

Colorado has 6 clean sheets, while Los Angeles FC has recorded 11 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Venue stats show an average of 1.6 goals per game with a 20% BTTS rate

Home advantage supports Colorado, who conceded only 9 goals in 12 home matches

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