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Major League Soccer

Sporting KC - St. Louis City

08/20/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Sporting KC
1.1
Total xG
2.9
St. Louis City
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

6%

0:3

6%
What influences the xG?
SKSLC

Sporting KC

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-1.10
Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.67
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Manu García not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)

St. Louis City

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.71
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.02
Marcel Hartel not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Sporting KC with Stephen Afrifa: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    St. Louis City: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    St. Louis City: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

20%

Draw

26%

Away Win

54%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

46%

Away or Draw

80%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 54% probability for an away win for St. Louis City
  • Form Contrast: St. Louis City is undefeated in their last 5 matches (WWWDW), while Sporting KC lost 4 of their last 5 (LWLLL)
  • Tactical Dominance: St. Louis City recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per game with 57% possession
Risk Factors
  • Away vulnerability: St. Louis City concede an average of 1.88 goals per away match
  • Key player missing: Marcel Hartel (6 goals, 3 assists) is not in the starting lineup for St. Louis City
Overview

Sporting KC (15th place, 14 points) host St. Louis City (6th place, 29 points)

Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 2:00 AM

Classic matchup between the bottom of the table and the upper mid-table

Form

Sporting KC in poor form: LWLLL (1 win, 4 losses)

St. Louis City in strong shape: WWWDW (4 wins, 1 draw)

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting KC average 0.95 goals scored and 2.53 goals conceded per game

St. Louis City average 1.42 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game

Sporting KC have failed to secure a single clean sheet this season (0 clean sheets)

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in total

1 win for Sporting KC, 2 wins for St. Louis City, 2 draws

The last match on July 17, 2026, ended in a 3-2 victory for St. Louis City

Key Players

Dejan Joveljić (8 goals this season, stable form trend)

Simon Becher (4 goals this season, rising form with 3 goals in the last 5 matches)

Tomas Totland (3 assists in the last 5 matches)

Goalkeepers

Stefan Cleveland (Sporting KC) is yet to record a clean sheet this season

Roman Bürki (St. Louis City) has recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage at Children's Mercy Park on a grass surface

Historical venue statistics show an average of 2.8 total goals per match

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