Match report →
St. Louis City – Real Salt Lake1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.67
Total xG
2.69
Real Salt Lake
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.54 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Marcel Hartel on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Zavier Gozo not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Morgan Guilavogui not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Stijn Spierings on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- St. Louis City shows a strong form curve and recently averaged 2.2 goals per game, which is higher than their season average of 1.4
- The weak away defense of Real Salt Lake, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game, favors the hosts
- The statistical model estimates a 51% home win probability for the possession-dominant hosts
Risks
- Zavier Gozo, Morgan Guilavogui, and Stijn Spierings are missing for Real Salt Lake, leaving only 69% of their attacking threat available
- St. Louis City has never won a direct matchup against Real Salt Lake, recording 2 draws and 2 losses in history
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City51%
Draw27%
Real Salt Lake22%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw78%
Real Salt Lake or draw49%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Real Salt Lake: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- St. Louis City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Real Salt Lake: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-2-1 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-1-2
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 6 C. Wallem
- 24 D. Edelman
- 8 C. Durkin
- 14 T. Totland
- 77 S. Jeong
- 10 E. Löwen
- 11 S. Becher
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 26 P. Quinton
- 29 S. Junqua
- 23 C. Booth
- 27 G. Dillon
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 10 D. Luna
- 70 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
Substitutes
- 17 M. Hartel
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 28 M. Perez
- 39 B. Lundt
- 59 M. Joyner
- 27 F. Fol
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 29 P. Ault
- 23 A. Măţan
- 4 L. Engel
- 6 S. Spierings
- 17 V. Olatunji
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 98 A. Katranis
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 21 J. Arias
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