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Major League Soccer

St. Louis City - Real Salt Lake

08/02/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Louis City
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Real Salt Lake
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SLCRSL

St. Louis City

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.26
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
Marcel Hartel on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Real Salt Lake

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Zavier Gozo not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
Morgan Guilavogui not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Stijn Spierings on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    St. Louis City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Real Salt Lake: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • St. Louis City shows a strong form curve and recently averaged 2.2 goals per game, which is higher than their season average of 1.4
  • The weak away defense of Real Salt Lake, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game, favors the hosts
  • The statistical model estimates a 51% home win probability for the possession-dominant hosts
Risk Factors
  • Zavier Gozo, Morgan Guilavogui, and Stijn Spierings are missing for Real Salt Lake, leaving only 69% of their attacking threat available
  • St. Louis City has never won a direct matchup against Real Salt Lake, recording 2 draws and 2 losses in history
Overview

St. Louis City (7th place, 25 points) host Real Salt Lake (5th place, 26 points) at Energizer Park

Major League Soccer match on August 2, 2026, 2:30 AM

A tight matchup between table neighbors fighting for playoff positions

Form

St. Louis City showing excellent form with a DWWWW trend

Recent run includes 4 wins and 1 draw for the home side

Real Salt Lake registers a WWDLL trend with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

St. Louis City enters this matchup in better overall shape

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Louis City scores an average of 1.35 goals while conceding 1.35 per game

At home, the team concedes only 0.82 goals on average

Real Salt Lake scores an average of 1.75 goals and concedes 1.50 per match

Away from home, Real Salt Lake concedes an extreme average of 2.67 goals

Head-to-Head

A total of 4 head-to-head matches historically

No home win for St. Louis City, with 2 wins for Real Salt Lake and 2 draws

Goal record of 6:9 in favor of the visitors

The last direct meeting on October 19, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

Simon Becher with 2 goals and 4 assists this season

Tomas Totland solidifies the defense with 2 assists and a 6.86 average rating

Daniel Ethan Edelman anchors the midfield with 1 goal and 2 assists

Not nominated for the hosts is Marcel Hartel (5 goals, 3 assists)

Sergi Solans leads the visitors' attack with 6 goals and 3 assists

Diego Luna shines with 4 goals, 1 assist, and a strong rating of 7.44

Juan Manuel Sanabria has contributed 1 goal and 4 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Roman BĆ¼rki starts in goal for the hosts with 3 clean sheets this season

Rafael Cabral guards the visitors' goal with 2 clean sheets recorded

BĆ¼rki shows more stable recent form with a 5-match rating of 6.92 compared to Cabral at 6.70

Influences

Energizer Park offers a natural grass surface for this match

Historically, the stadium averages 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of historical matches at this venue

St. Louis City benefits from home strength, conceding only 0.82 goals on average

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