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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - Columbus Crew

08/02/2026, 12:10 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
1.9
Total xG
3.6
Columbus Crew
1.7
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
IMCC

Inter Miami

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.7 season average)
+0.21
Attack strength (1.47x league average)
-0.16
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.01
Lionel Messi  on the bench (12 goals, 8 assists)
GermĂĄn Berterame not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Telasco Segovia on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Ian Fray not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 49% available)

Columbus Crew

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.46
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.28
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Max Arfsten on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Inter Miami with Rodrigo De Paul: 3.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Inter Miami: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

24%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 50% of the usual attacking threat is available, with Lionel Messi, GermĂĄn Berterame, Telasco Segovia, and Ian Fray missing
  • Historical dominance and form: Inter Miami won all 4 previous meetings against Columbus Crew and is riding a 5-match winning streak
  • Offensive drive: Inter Miami recently averaged 6.8 shots on target and the model predicts 1.90 expected goals for the hosts
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable away defense: Columbus Crew concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away match
  • Defensive instability: Inter Miami conceded an average of 1.88 goals per game at home this season
Overview

Inter Miami hosts Columbus Crew at Chase Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 1, 2026, 11:30 PM

Second-placed Inter Miami with 37 points faces eleventh-placed Columbus Crew with 19 points

A clear hierarchy shapes this encounter

Form

Inter Miami is in outstanding shape with 5 consecutive wins

The home team recorded 5 wins in their last 5 matches with a WWWWW form

Columbus Crew shows unstable form with a LDWLW pattern

The momentum is fully on the side of the hosts

Statistics

Inter Miami scores an average of 2.53 goals per game this season while conceding 1.76

The hosts boast a highly productive offense with 43 goals scored in 17 games

Columbus Crew averages 1.41 goals scored per match and concedes 1.89 goals in away games

Miami's home matches average 2.38 goals scored per game

Head-to-Head

Inter Miami dominates the historical record with 4 wins in 4 head-to-head matches

Columbus Crew has never beaten Inter Miami in these matches

The overall goal ratio stands at 11 to 4 in favor of Inter Miami

The last meeting ended in a clear 5-1 home victory for Inter Miami on May 31, 2025

Key Players

Luis SuĂĄrez leads Inter Miami's attack with 9 season goals in 13 appearances

Mateo Silvetti has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists so far this season

DĂĄniel Gazdag remains crucial for Columbus Crew's midfield with 3 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Rocco RĂ­os Novo starts in goal for Inter Miami with a season average rating of 7.40

Patrick Schulte features for Columbus Crew with 17 appearances this season

Both keepers face a challenging match ahead

Influences

Chase Stadium features a natural grass surface

Matches at this venue recently averaged a high of 4.80 goals per game

The mathematical model estimates a 69% probability for over 2.5 goals

The stadium has a strong history of high-scoring games

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