Match report →
Inter Miami – Columbus Crew2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
1.90
Total xG
3.57
Columbus Crew
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.46 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 2.7 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Lionel Messi on the bench (12 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Germán Berterame not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Telasco Segovia on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Ian Fray not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 49% available) | ||
| Max Arfsten on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 72% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Only 50% of the usual attacking threat is available, with Lionel Messi, Germán Berterame, Telasco Segovia, and Ian Fray missing
- Historical dominance and form: Inter Miami won all 4 previous meetings against Columbus Crew and is riding a 5-match winning streak
- Offensive drive: Inter Miami recently averaged 6.8 shots on target and the model predicts 1.90 expected goals for the hosts
Risks
- Vulnerable away defense: Columbus Crew concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away match
- Defensive instability: Inter Miami conceded an average of 1.88 goals per game at home this season
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami43%
Draw24%
Columbus Crew33%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw67%
Columbus Crew or draw57%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Columbus Crew: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Inter Miami with Rodrigo De Paul: 3.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Inter Miami: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · Columbus Crew 4-4-2
Inter Miami
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 4 F. Mura
- 15 F. Caicedo Jaramillo
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 32 N. Allen
- 7 R. de Paul
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 42 Y. Bright
- 56 D. Pintér
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
- 24 M. Silvetti
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 23 M. Farsi
- 31 S. Moreira
- 4 R. Camacho
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 16 T. Habroune
- 7 D. Chambost
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 30 H. Picard
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 8 D. Gazdag
Substitutes
- 10 L. Messi
- 22 D. Ayala
- 41 D. Ruiz
- 97 D. St Clair
- 76 C. Abadia-Reda
- 70 D. Sumalla
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 52 D. Rey
- 55 I. Urkidi
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 46 C. Adams
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 11 B. Lennon
- 50 T. Karumanchi
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