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New York City – Chicago Fire3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
New York City
1.48
Total xG
3.21
Chicago Fire
1.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York City | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.72 | |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.54 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Maxi Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Hannes Wolf on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Keaton Parks not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Hugo Cuypers not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Andrew Gutman on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 39% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- High-scoring history at Yankee Stadium with an average of 5.0 total goals per game
- Chicago Fire averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Missing top scorer Hugo Cuypers significantly reduces Chicago's usual attacking threat
Risks
- Both teams face potential fatigue with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- New York City is missing key creative players Maxi Moralez and Hannes Wolf from the lineup
- New York City's defense remains vulnerable, conceding 1.38 goals per game on average
All probabilities
Result
New York City32%
Draw26%
Chicago Fire42%
Double chance
New York City or draw58%
Chicago Fire or draw68%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City with Andrés Perea: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Chicago Fire: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Chicago Fire: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Chicago Fire: 39% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 18)
Lineups
New York City 4-1-4-1 · Chicago Fire 4-4-2
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 32 J. Shore
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 88 M. Jones
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 16 J. Waterman
- 3 J. Elliott
- 14 V. Radojević
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 19 J. Bamba
- 17 R. Lod
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
Substitutes
- 9 B. Traore
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 17 H. Wolf
- 29 M. Carrizo Ballesteros
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 99 S. Garfield-Reid
- 23 M. Murray
- 15 K. Pierre Jr.
- 87 A. Farnós Olive
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 20 J. Shokalook
- 22 M. Pineda
- 24 R. Dean
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 5 S. Rogers
- 15 A. Gutman
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