đŸ‡ș🇾

Major League Soccer

New York City - Chicago Fire

07/25/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
New York City
1.5
Total xG
3.2
Chicago Fire
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NYCCF

New York City

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.72
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.03
Maxi Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
Hannes Wolf on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Keaton Parks not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Chicago Fire

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.54
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.20
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.03
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.02
Hugo Cuypers not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists)
Andrew Gutman on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
39% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York City with Andrés Perea: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Chicago Fire: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Chicago Fire: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Chicago Fire: 39% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

26%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • High-scoring history at Yankee Stadium with an average of 5.0 total goals per game
  • Chicago Fire averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Missing top scorer Hugo Cuypers significantly reduces Chicago's usual attacking threat
Risk Factors
  • Both teams face potential fatigue with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • New York City is missing key creative players Maxi Moralez and Hannes Wolf from the lineup
  • New York City's defense remains vulnerable, conceding 1.38 goals per game on average
Overview

New York City (6th place, 22 points) hosts Chicago Fire (3rd place, 26 points) at Yankee Stadium

Major League Soccer match on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

The mathematical model predicts a tight fixture with 1.48 expected goals for the hosts and 1.73 for the visitors

Form

New York City is in form WWDLW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Chicago Fire arrives with form LWWWL including 3 wins and 2 losses

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

New York City averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per game

Chicago Fire scores an average of 1.93 goals and concedes 1.27 goals

New York City scores 1.73 goals per game on average at home

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, New York City won 2 times with 2 draws

The goal difference stands at 8:4 in favor of New York City

The last match on September 14, 2025, ended in a 3-1 win for New York City

Key Players

NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez Mercau has 11 goals and 3 assists this season

AgustĂ­n Ojeda recorded 4 goals and 3 assists

Talles Magno contributed 2 goals and 1 assist

For the visitors, Philip Zinckernagel has 5 goals and 7 assists

Maren Haile-Selassie has 3 goals and 3 assists

Robin Lod registered 3 goals and 1 assist

Not nominated: Maxi Moralez (1G/6A), Hannes Wolf (5G/2A), Keaton Parks (2G/0A)

Not nominated: Hugo Cuypers (13G/0A), Andrew Gutman (1G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Matt Freese recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Chris Brady has registered 6 clean sheets so far

Influences

Yankee Stadium features high-scoring games with an average of 5.0 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of recent matches played at this stadium

The game will take place on natural grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.