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Major League Soccer

Toronto - New England

08/15/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Toronto
1.3
Total xG
2.7
New England
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
TORNE

Toronto

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.64
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.27
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap)
-0.13
Kobe Franklin on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jonathan OsorioĀ  not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Derrick Etienne Jr. on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

New England

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New England with Luca Langoni: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Toronto with Emilio AristizƔbal: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Toronto: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    New England: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

29%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Depleted squad for Toronto: Missing players Kobe Franklin, Jonathan Osorio, Alonso Coello, and Derrick Etienne Jr. significantly weaken the team
  • Offensive slump: Toronto recently averaged just 1.0 goal compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Consistent threat: New England scored reliably in recent matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Defensive instability: New England concede a very high average of 3.25 goals in away matches
  • Vulnerable home record: Toronto has failed to keep a single clean sheet at home this season
  • Tight projection: The mathematical model shows an extremely close match with a 36% probability for New England and 34% for Toronto
Overview

Toronto host New England at BMO Field

Major League Soccer match on August 15, 2026, 11:30 PM

Toronto sit in 12th place with 17 points

New England are in 3rd place with 30 points

The standings point to a clear gap between the teams

Form

Toronto form: LDDLD

The home team is winless in 5 matches with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

New England form: LDWDL

The visitors recently recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Toronto score an average of 1.33 goals and concede 1.78 goals per match

At home, Toronto has not kept a single clean sheet in 13 matches this season

New England average 1.56 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded

In away matches, the visitors concede an average of 3.25 goals

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches

Toronto won 2 times, New England won 1 time, with 2 draws

The goal difference is balanced at 3:3

The last meeting on July 22, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

DĆ”niel SallĆ³i with 4 goals and 3 assists in 18 season appearances

Josh Sargent scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in 11 matches

Djordje Mihailovic has 2 goals and 2 assists in 8 games

Carles Gil stands out with 7 goals and 3 assists in 18 matches

Dor Turgeman recorded 4 goals and 5 assists this season

Peyton Miller contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in 16 appearances

Goalkeepers

Luka Gavran played 18 matches in goal and recorded 3 clean sheets

Matt Turner also made 18 appearances and kept 4 clean sheets

Influences

Played on natural grass at BMO Field

Historically, matches at this stadium average 2.6 goals per game

The Over 2.5 goals rate at this venue stands at 60%

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