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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - Atlanta United

08/01/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Atlanta United
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
PUAU

Philadelphia Union

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.28
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.18
Ben Bender on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Atlanta United

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.08
Ajani Fortune not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlanta United with Stian Gregersen: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 3
    Atlanta United: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Philadelphia Union with Olwethu Makhanya: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlanta United: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Philadelphia Union is currently scoring more frequently with 2.4 goals compared to their 1.5 season average
  • Tactical focus: Philadelphia Union averaged 7.4 shots on target in their recent matches
  • Atlanta United's goal production has stalled, averaging just 0.8 goals in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Atlanta United concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
  • Low scoring history at Subaru Park, averaging just 1.4 total goals per game
Overview

Philadelphia Union host Atlanta United at Subaru Park

Major League Soccer match on August 1, 2026, 11:30 PM

A bottom-of-the-table clash between 14th place with 13 points and 15th place with 12 points

Form

Philadelphia shows positive momentum with two consecutive wins

Philadelphia Union form: LDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Atlanta United is winless in their last five matches

Atlanta United form: DLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Philadelphia averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game this season

Atlanta United concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 11 of Philadelphia's 17 matches

Head-to-Head

The last meeting ended in a 3-1 win for Atlanta United on March 14, 2026

In five head-to-head matches, there have been two draws and two home wins

A total of 8:6 goals were scored in favor of the home team in these matchups

Key Players

Milan Iloski stands out with 9 goals and an average rating of 7.31

Frankie Westfield has contributed 4 assists in 13 appearances

Aleksey Miranchuk leads the visitors with 5 goals and 4 assists

Not nominated for the hosts: Ben Bender (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake played 16 season games with an average rating of 6.71

Lucas Hoyos has 17 appearances and an average rating of 6.72

Both goalkeepers have recorded few clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Subaru Park

Subaru Park features a low average of 1.4 goals per game

Home advantage is visible as Philadelphia scores 1.4 goals at home while Atlanta averages 1.0 away

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