Match report →
Philadelphia Union – Atlanta United3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
1.60
Total xG
2.65
Atlanta United
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Ben Bender on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ajani Fortune not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Form trend: Philadelphia Union is currently scoring more frequently with 2.4 goals compared to their 1.5 season average
- Tactical focus: Philadelphia Union averaged 7.4 shots on target in their recent matches
- Atlanta United's goal production has stalled, averaging just 0.8 goals in recent matches
Risks
- Atlanta United concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
- Low scoring history at Subaru Park, averaging just 1.4 total goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union49%
Draw28%
Atlanta United23%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw77%
Atlanta United or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlanta United with Stian Gregersen: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- Atlanta United: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Philadelphia Union with Olwethu Makhanya: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Atlanta United: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 · Atlanta United 3-4-3
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 9 B. Damiani
- 10 M. Iloski
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 47 M. Edwards
- 28 W. Reilly
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 22 F. Picault
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
Substitutes
- 5 J. Sery
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 2 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 5 S. Rode Gregersen
- 20 L. Brennan
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 41 T. Majub
- 23 A. Torres
- 39 A. Kovac
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