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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - New England

08/01/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.5
Total xG
2.6
New England
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CMNE

CF Montréal

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap)
-0.16
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
W. Carmona Torres not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

New England

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.46
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap)
+0.06
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New England with Luca Langoni: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    CF Montréal with Wikelman José Carmona Torres: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    New England: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 4
    New England: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    New England: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

29%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Table disparity: Third-place New England (29 points) faces struggling 13th-place CF Montréal (15 points)
  • Form advantage: New England secured two wins in their last five matches, while Montréal remains winless in five games
  • Head-to-head dominance: New England won three of the last five meetings with a clear 14:5 goal difference
Risk Factors
  • New England's defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 3.67 goals per away game
  • Absence of W. Carmona Torres weakens Montréal's attack, with only 82% of the goal scoring share available
Overview

CF Montréal (13th place, 15 points) face New England (3rd place, 29 points) at Stade Saputo

Major League Soccer match on August 1, 2026, 7:30 PM

New England enter the match as favorites in third place

Form

Montréal show weak form with "LDDLL" and no wins in their last five matches

New England travel with a form of "LWLDW" and two wins in their last five games

The home side recently managed only two draws and suffered three losses

Statistics

Montréal average 1.29 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded per game this season

New England are offensively stronger with 1.63 goals and more stable with 1.19 conceded

At home, Montréal concede an average of only 1.00 goals per match

Head-to-Head

New England dominate the historical record with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings

In total, 14:5 goals were scored in favor of New England in these matches

The last direct duel ended in a clear 3-0 victory for New England

Key Players

Prince Owusu shines for Montréal with 9 goals and 6 assists this season

Carles Gil leads New England's midfield with 6 goals and 3 assists

Peyton Miller has already contributed 4 goals this season as a high-scoring defender

Goalkeepers

Sébastian Breza plays in goal for Montréal and kept 4 clean sheets this season

Matt Turner kept goal for New England with 4 clean sheets as well

Both keepers share an identical clean sheet record this season

Influences

The home advantage at Stade Saputo stabilizes Montréal with only 1.00 goal conceded per home game

The stadium average stands at 1.8 goals per match based on venue history

Mathematical predictions give Montréal a slight 42% chance of winning at home

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