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CF Montréal – New England2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
CF Montréal
1.46
Total xG
2.64
New England
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | CF Montréal | New England |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.46 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| W. Carmona Torres not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table disparity: Third-place New England (29 points) faces struggling 13th-place CF Montréal (15 points)
- Form advantage: New England secured two wins in their last five matches, while Montréal remains winless in five games
- Head-to-head dominance: New England won three of the last five meetings with a clear 14:5 goal difference
Risks
- New England's defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 3.67 goals per away game
- Absence of W. Carmona Torres weakens Montréal's attack, with only 82% of the goal scoring share available
All probabilities
Result
CF Montréal42%
Draw29%
New England29%
Double chance
CF Montréal or draw71%
New England or draw58%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England with Luca Langoni: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- CF Montréal with Wikelman José Carmona Torres: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- New England: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- New England: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- New England: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
CF Montréal 4-3-3 · New England 4-2-3-1
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 22 V. Loturi
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 9 P. Owusu
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 21 B. Raines
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 25 P. Miller
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
Substitutes
- 2 J. Neal
- 6 S. Piette
- 23 N. Streit
- 29 O. Escobar
- 5 B. Craig
- 26 I. Losenko
- 41 S. Keita
- 21 F. Herbers
- 73 J. Gunn
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 14 J. Yueill
- 38 E. Klein
- 41 L. Langoni
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
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