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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - Toronto

08/22/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
2.2
Total xG
3.5
Toronto
1.3
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
IMTOR

Inter Miami

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.51
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.5 season average)
-0.22
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.08
Mateo Silvetti not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)

Toronto

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Jonathan Osorio  not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Niklas Dorsch not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Theo Corbeanu  on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toronto with Malik Henry: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Inter Miami with Micael: 3.2 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

23%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Offensive advantage: Inter Miami's strong home attack (2.33 goals) meets Toronto's highly vulnerable away defense (2.8 goals conceded per game on average)
  • Historical dominance: Inter Miami won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Toronto and enters the match with a 55% home win probability
  • Tactical contrast: Inter Miami recently averaged 55% possession in matches, while Toronto averaged only 43.2% possession
Risk Factors
  • High physical strain: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Slowing offense: Inter Miami's goal production recently dropped to an average of 1.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.53
  • Missing stability: The suspension of midfielder Y. Bright due to a red card weakens the defensive lineup
Overview

Inter Miami (2nd place, 39 points) host Toronto (10th place, 21 points)

MLS match at Chase Stadium on August 22, 2026, 7:30 PM

The hosts fight for the top spot while Toronto seek to close the gap

Form

Inter Miami recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (WWDLD)

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Philadelphia Union

Toronto stabilizes with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss (DLDWD)

The Canadians recently drew 3-3 against Charlotte

Statistics

Inter Miami scores 2.4 goals on average while conceding 1.9 per game

At home, they score 2.33 goals and concede 1.89 per match

Toronto struggles away, conceding 2.8 goals per game on average

The visitors score 1.4 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Inter Miami won 3 of the last 5 direct meetings against Toronto

Two matches ended in a draw, with Toronto remaining winless

Their last duel in May 2026 resulted in a 4-2 away win for Inter Miami

Key Players

Lionel Messi leads Inter Miami with 13 goals and 9 assists in 17 matches

Luis SuĂĄrez added 10 goals and 3 assists

GermĂĄn Berterame contributed 7 goals and 4 assists

DĂĄniel SallĂłi is Toronto's best scorer with 5 goals and 3 assists

Josh Sargent recorded 3 goals and 2 assists

Djordje Mihailovic has 2 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Dayne St. Clair kept 4 clean sheets this season for Inter Miami

Luka Gavran achieved 3 clean sheets in 20 appearances for Toronto

Influences

Chase Stadium sees highly high-scoring matches with 5.2 goals on average

All 5 previous matches ended with over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in four

The game is played on natural grass

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