🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Charlotte - Columbus Crew

08/15/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Charlotte
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Columbus Crew
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CHACC

Charlotte

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.03
Kerwin Vargas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Harry Toffolo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Agyemang Morrison on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Columbus Crew

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.30
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.02
Max Arfsten not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Mohamed Farsi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
63% of goal output missing (only 40% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Charlotte: 72% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Columbus Crew: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Charlotte with David Schnegg: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Columbus Crew: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 12)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Only 40% of usual goal-scoring threat available for Columbus Crew due to the absence of Max Arfsten and Mohamed Farsi
  • Tactical advantage for Charlotte: Averaged 5.0 shots on target recently with a counter-oriented style
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Charlotte concedes avg 0.92 goals at home while Columbus concedes avg 1.90 away
Risk Factors
  • Columbus Crew concedes an average of 1.90 goals per away match
  • Columbus Crew has kept 0 clean sheets in away games this season
  • Missing data on weather conditions
Overview

Charlotte hosts Columbus Crew at the Bank of America Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 16, 2026, 1:30 AM

7th-placed Charlotte with 25 points challenges 10th-placed Columbus Crew with 20 points

A crucial clash for the playoff positions

Form

Charlotte enters with a WWDWL form from their last five matches

Their most recent game ended in a 1-2 defeat against Chicago Fire

Columbus Crew travels with a DWLWD form

They recently recorded a 2-2 draw against Inter Miami

Statistics

Charlotte averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded this season

At home, their defense is particularly solid, conceding just 0.92 goals per game

Columbus Crew averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded

In away matches, Columbus concedes an average of 1.90 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in total

Charlotte leads the record with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Columbus Crew and one draw

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 victory for Charlotte on May 24, 2025

Key Players

Pep Biel is Charlotte's main threat with 9 goals and 5 assists in 18 appearances

Idan Toklomati has contributed 5 goals and 2 assists so far

Ashley Westwood commands the midfield with an average rating of 7.10

For Columbus Crew, Dániel Gazdag shines with 3 goals and a rising form trend

Taha Habroune impresses in midfield with a rating of 7.04

Dylan Chambost has already provided 2 assists this season

Not in squad for Charlotte: Kerwin Vargas (3G/4A), Harry Toffolo (0G/2A), Agyemang Morrison (2G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Kristijan Kahlina starts in goal for Charlotte with a strong season rating of 7.10

Patrick Schulte has played 18 times for Columbus Crew with a rating of 6.65

Both goalkeepers have recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at the Bank of America Stadium

Charlotte has secured 4 wins and 3 draws in 10 games on this surface

Columbus Crew has a record of 1 win and 2 losses on artificial turf

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.