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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - Austin

07/26/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Austin
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
HDAUS

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-0.61
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.31
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Full strength squad available

Austin

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.81
Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.74
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Christian Ramirez on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Jon Bell not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 91% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Austin: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Austin: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Austin with Myrto Uzuni: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Houston Dynamo with AgustĆ­n Bouzat: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Austin: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Austin's extreme defensive vulnerability on the road, conceding an average of 3.57 goals per away game
  • The mathematical model projects a 51% probability of a home victory for Houston Dynamo
  • Houston Dynamo averaged a strong 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • High fatigue factor as both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Extremely low-scoring trend at the Shell Energy Stadium with an average of only 1.2 goals per game
  • The absence of Christian Ramirez (5 goals, 1 assist) reduces Austin's active goals share to 91%
Overview

Houston Dynamo hosts Austin at the Shell Energy Stadium

Major League Soccer match on July 26, 2026, 2:30 AM

Houston is in 7th place with 23 points, while Austin sits in 14th place with 17 points

A crucial matchup in the race for playoff spots

Form

Houston's form is WLWDD with 2 wins and 2 draws

Austin's form is DLLLW with 1 win and 1 draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Houston Dynamo scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.60 goals

Austin scores 1.38 goals on average and concedes 2.00 goals

Austin concedes an average of 3.57 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches

Both teams have recorded 2 wins and 1 draw

The last match ended in a 0-2 victory for Austin

Key Players

Guilherme has 8 goals and 4 assists in 15 matches

Jack McGlynn registered 2 goals and 3 assists in 11 appearances

Lawrence Ennali contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 15 matches

Myrto Uzuni scored 6 goals and gave 1 assist for the visitors

Facundo Torres has 1 goal and 5 assists

Brad Stuver has a strong season average rating of 7.22

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Bond has played 15 matches this season and secured 4 clean sheets

Brad Stuver has 16 appearances and also recorded 4 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Shell Energy Stadium

The stadium average is very low with only 1.2 goals per game

None of the last 5 home games had over 2.5 goals

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