Match report →
Houston Dynamo – Austin3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Houston Dynamo
1.55
Total xG
2.43
Austin
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Houston Dynamo | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.81 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.74 | |
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Christian Ramirez on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jon Bell not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Austin's extreme defensive vulnerability on the road, conceding an average of 3.57 goals per away game
- The mathematical model projects a 51% probability of a home victory for Houston Dynamo
- Houston Dynamo averaged a strong 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- High fatigue factor as both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Extremely low-scoring trend at the Shell Energy Stadium with an average of only 1.2 goals per game
- The absence of Christian Ramirez (5 goals, 1 assist) reduces Austin's active goals share to 91%
All probabilities
Result
Houston Dynamo51%
Draw29%
Austin20%
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw80%
Austin or draw49%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
2:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Austin: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Austin: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Austin with Myrto Uzuni: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Houston Dynamo with Agustín Bouzat: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Austin: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Houston Dynamo 4-1-4-1 · Austin 3-4-3
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 11 L. Ennali
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 10 E. Ponce Martínez
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 33 O. Wolff
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 10 M. Uzuni
Substitutes
- 23 D. McGuire
- 8 J. McGlynn
- 9 O. Lingr
- 14 D. Holmes
- 21 F. Negri
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 28 E. Sviatchenko
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 7 J. Nelson
- 12 D. Las
- 20 N. Dubersarsky
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 38 E. Torres
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 21 C. Ramírez
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