Match report →
LA Galaxy – Seattle Sounders1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.38
Total xG
2.69
Seattle Sounders
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.69 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Joseph Paintsil not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Maya Yoshida on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Very balanced winning chances according to the model with a 37% home win and 34% away win
- LA Galaxy have been more active offensively with an average of 5.4 shots on target per match recently
- Seattle Sounders possess a more stable season defense with 1.32 goals conceded per game compared to LA Galaxy's 1.56
Risks
- LA Galaxy face a clear disadvantage in recovery with only 3 days of rest compared to Seattle's 7 days
- LA Galaxy are missing key starting lineup options due to injuries such as Joseph Paintsil and Maya Yoshida
- Limited data availability regarding local weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy37%
Draw29%
Seattle Sounders34%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw66%
Seattle Sounders or draw63%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Seattle Sounders: 10 of 23 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Cristian Roldán starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (12/7 games, last 22)
- Seattle Sounders: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 10 total)
- LA Galaxy: 2.8 cards per game (29 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-3-3 · Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 2 L. Calegari
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 15 J. Haak
- 14 J. Nelson
- 18 M. Reus
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 27 E. Thommy
- 21 R. Taylor
- 7 K. Furuhashi
- 11 H. Lozano Bahena
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 16 A. Roldan
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 5 N. Tolo
- 7 C. Roldan
- 37 S. Brunell
- 13 J. Morris
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 9 D. Joveljić
Substitutes
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 26 H. Miller
- 99 J. De Mello
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 8 C. Clark
- 17 P. Arriola
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 31 H. Dotson
- 90 S. Gomez
- 45 P. Kingston
- 4 R. Sailor
- 20 K. Kim
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