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Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire - New England

09/13/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Chicago Fire
1.4
Total xG
3.1
New England
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CFNE

Chicago Fire

Maren Haile-Selassie on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
Robin Lod on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Andrew Gutman on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)

New England

Attack strength (1.49x league average)
+0.59
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.09
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.06
Alhassan Yusuf not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Jack Harrison on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Chicago Fire: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 23)

  • 3
    Robert Lewandowski: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Chicago Fire: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

26%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage: New England is in stronger shape with 3 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Chicago's four consecutive draws
  • Matchup benefit: Chicago averages 1.91 goals at home against a vulnerable New England away defense that concedes 1.90 goals on average
  • Offensive power: New England averaged a strong 7.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Weakened squad: Maren Haile-Selassie, Robin Lod, and Andrew Gutman are missing, leaving only 68% of the usual goal threat available
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Away vulnerability: New England concedes an average of 1.90 goals per away match this season
Overview

Chicago Fire (5th place, 39 points) host New England (3rd place, 40 points) at Soldier Field

Major League Soccer match on September 13, 2026, 11:30 PM

The mathematical model predicts a close match with an advantage for the visitors at a 45% away win probability

Form

Chicago Fire shows a stable form with the record WDDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home side is on a run of four consecutive draws

New England is in strong shape with the record WDWLW, coming off a win

Statistics

Chicago Fire averages 1.91 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game

At home, Chicago Fire's defense is tighter, conceding only 1.09 goals per game

New England averages 1.63 goals scored but concedes 1.90 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, there is 1 win for Chicago Fire, 1 win for New England, and 2 draws

The last match ended in a 2:2 draw

The overall balance is completely even with 6 goals scored by each team

Key Players

Robert Lewandowski has 6 goals and 2 assists in 9 appearances for Chicago Fire

Philip Zinckernagel has provided 9 assists so far this season

For New England, Carles Gil has been outstanding with 10 goals and 4 assists in 24 matches

Goalkeepers

Chris Brady starts in goal for Chicago Fire, keeping 4 clean sheets at home

Matt Turner plays in goal for New England, recording 5 clean sheets this season

Both goalkeepers look to make an impact in this match

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Soldier Field

Chicago Fire averages 1.91 goals scored per home match

The venue statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

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