Match report →
Chicago Fire – New England1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Chicago Fire
1.36
Total xG
3.09
New England
1.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chicago Fire | New England |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack strength (1.49x league average) | +0.59 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Maren Haile-Selassie on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Robin Lod on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Andrew Gutman on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Alhassan Yusuf not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jack Harrison on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form advantage: New England is in stronger shape with 3 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Chicago's four consecutive draws
- Matchup benefit: Chicago averages 1.91 goals at home against a vulnerable New England away defense that concedes 1.90 goals on average
- Offensive power: New England averaged a strong 7.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Weakened squad: Maren Haile-Selassie, Robin Lod, and Andrew Gutman are missing, leaving only 68% of the usual goal threat available
- Fatigue factor: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Away vulnerability: New England concedes an average of 1.90 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Chicago Fire29%
Draw26%
New England45%
Double chance
Chicago Fire or draw55%
New England or draw71%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 23)
- Robert Lewandowski: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1 · New England 4-3-3
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 5 S. Rogers
- 3 J. Elliott
- 32 N. Allen
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 18 J. Gomez
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 9 R. Lewandowski
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 21 B. Raines
- 14 J. Yueill
- 25 P. Miller
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 16 D. Gazdag
Substitutes
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 17 R. Lod
- 19 J. Bamba
- 22 M. Pineda
- 44 J. Cohen
- 29 D. Poręba
- 15 A. Gutman
- 37 R. Turdean
- 66 J. Wynder
- 73 J. Gunn
- 7 G. Yow
- 12 I. Feingold
- 41 L. Langoni
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
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