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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - Nashville SC

09/12/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Nashville SC
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
IMNS

Inter Miami

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Full strength squad available

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.47
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.43
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Elias Saad on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 2.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Inter Miami: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 4 goals (80', 83', 89', 90+6')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Messi in peak form: The attacker is fully available with 18 goals and 12 assists this season
  • High-scoring venue: Matches at Chase Stadium averaged 4.8 goals per game recently
  • Ball possession dominance: Inter Miami averaged 56.4% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time: Inter Miami enters this match with only 2 days of rest since their last game
  • Defensive vulnerability: Inter Miami concedes an average of 1.83 goals per game this season
  • Strong away defense of the opponent: Nashville SC concedes average of only 1.17 goals in away matches
Overview

Top clash in Major League Soccer

Second-placed Inter Miami (44 points) host leaders Nashville SC (53 points)

Match on September 12, 2026, 11:30 PM at Chase Stadium

A crucial battle for the top spot

Form

Inter Miami form is DLWDD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

Nashville SC form is WWWDL (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Both sides experienced recent dropped points

Code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Inter Miami averages 2.46 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded per game

Nashville SC has an outstanding defense with only 19 goals conceded in 24 games

At home Inter Miami scores an average of 2.38 goals

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches overall

Nashville SC won 3 times while Inter Miami won 2 times

Their last meeting ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Nashville SC

Key Players

Lionel Messi stands out with 18 goals and 12 assists this season

Luis SuĂĄrez has added 12 goals for Miami

Hany Mukhtar leads Nashville with 10 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Dayne St. Clair features in goal for Miami with 19 appearances

Brian Schwake played 24 games for Nashville with a solid 7.08 average rating

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at Chase Stadium

Recent matches at this venue averaged 4.8 goals per game

The model calculates 1.61 expected home goals and 1.11 expected away goals

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