Match report →
Inter Miami – Nashville SC2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
1.61
Total xG
2.72
Nashville SC
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.43 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Elias Saad on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Messi in peak form: The attacker is fully available with 18 goals and 12 assists this season
- High-scoring venue: Matches at Chase Stadium averaged 4.8 goals per game recently
- Ball possession dominance: Inter Miami averaged 56.4% possession in recent matches
Risks
- Short recovery time: Inter Miami enters this match with only 2 days of rest since their last game
- Defensive vulnerability: Inter Miami concedes an average of 1.83 goals per game this season
- Strong away defense of the opponent: Nashville SC concedes average of only 1.17 goals in away matches
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami47%
Draw28%
Nashville SC25%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw75%
Nashville SC or draw53%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 4 goals (80', 83', 89', 90+6')
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 17 I. Fray
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 15 F. Caicedo Jaramillo
- 7 R. de Paul
- 42 Y. Bright
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
- 19 G. Berterame
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 19 A. Muyl
- 9 S. Surridge
Substitutes
- 2 G. Luján Melli
- 4 F. Mura
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 22 D. Ayala
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 56 D. Pintér
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 88 A. Shaw
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 11 E. Saad
- 1 J. Willis
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 22 J. Bauer
- 37 A. Qasem
- 14 S. Mohammed
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