Match report →
Inter Miami – Cincinnati2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
2.13
Total xG
3.82
Cincinnati
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.80 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.58 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| M. Silvetti not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Tom Barlow on the bench (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Pavel Bucha on the bench (6 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Kyle Smith on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tyrell Malacia not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Inter Miami average 2.73 goals per game at home in the league, Cincinnati concede 2.56 per game away
- Table: Inter Miami are 3rd in the league with 55 points from 31 games, Cincinnati are 8th with 42 points from 31 games
- Head-to-head: Inter Miami won 3 of 5 meetings against Cincinnati with 1 loss, the last match ended 5:3
Risks
- Defense: Inter Miami allowed 1.90 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1 goal per game
- Attack: Cincinnati average 2.06 goals per game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami47%
Draw23%
Cincinnati30%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw70%
Cincinnati or draw53%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.553%
Under 3.547%
Both teams score
Yes73%
No27%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.13 : 1.70, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Kévin Denkey: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 2.9 cards per game (30 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Inter Miami: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · Cincinnati 3-5-2
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 2 G. Luján Melli
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 7 R. de Paul
- 22 D. Ayala
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
- 19 G. Berterame
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 11 S. Gidi
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 23 D. Douděra
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 9 A. Denkey
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
Substitutes
- 4 F. Mura
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 17 I. Fray
- 20 S. Morales
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 42 Y. Bright
- 56 D. Pintér
- 88 A. Shaw
- 11 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 2 A. Powell
- 13 E. Louro
- 16 T. Barlow
- 20 P. Bucha
- 24 K. Smith
- 27 B. Anunga
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 88 A. Chirila
- 70 J. Martínez Torres
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