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Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - New York City

09/13/2026, 01:30 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.5
Total xG
2.8
New York City
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RSLNYC

Real Salt Lake

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Diego Luna on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Aiden Hezarkhani on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

New York City

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.18
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.06
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    New York City: 80% of all goals in the first half (12 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake with Morgan Guilavogui starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/6 games, last 23)

  • 5
    New York City: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

28%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis estimates a 40% probability for a Real Salt Lake home win
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Real Salt Lake concedes only 1.0 goals per home game, while New York City lets in 1.86 on average away
  • Offensive ace: New York City features NicolĆ”s FernĆ”ndez Mercau who has already scored 14 goals this season
Risk Factors
  • High fatigue risk: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Form crisis on both sides: Neither team managed to secure a single victory in their last five matches
  • Squad limitations for Real Salt Lake: Threatening players Diego Luna (5 goals, 3 assists) and Aiden Hezarkhani are missing from the lineup
Overview

Mid-table clash in Major League Soccer

10th-placed Real Salt Lake hosts 9th-placed New York City

Both teams are currently tied at 29 points

Match scheduled for September 13, 2026, 3:30 AM

Form

Real Salt Lake registers a form of LLLDL in their last five matches

Four losses and one draw indicate a clear negative trend

New York City enters the match with an LDDDL form record

Three draws and two defeats in their recent outings

Statistics

Real Salt Lake scored 1.61 goals and conceded 1.61 goals on average this season

New York City averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded

The visitors concede an average of 1.86 goals in away games

Real Salt Lake defense is solid at home with only 1.0 goals conceded per game

Key Players

Sergi Solans leads with 9 goals this season

Noel Caliskan contributed 1 goal and 4 assists with a stable form

NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau shines with 14 goals in this campaign

AgustĆ­n Ojeda recorded 5 goals and 6 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Rafael Cabral guards the net for the hosts with 2 clean sheets this season

Matt Freese recorded 4 clean sheets for New York City

Freese boasts a strong average rating of 6.93 this season

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at America First Field

Venue history indicates high-scoring matches with 3.8 goals on average

Both teams scored in 80% of the recent matches played at this stadium

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