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Real Salt Lake – New York City0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Real Salt Lake
1.48
Total xG
2.75
New York City
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Salt Lake | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Diego Luna on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Aiden Hezarkhani on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis estimates a 40% probability for a Real Salt Lake home win
- Home strength vs away weakness: Real Salt Lake concedes only 1.0 goals per home game, while New York City lets in 1.86 on average away
- Offensive ace: New York City features Nicolás Fernández Mercau who has already scored 14 goals this season
Risks
- High fatigue risk: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Form crisis on both sides: Neither team managed to secure a single victory in their last five matches
- Squad limitations for Real Salt Lake: Threatening players Diego Luna (5 goals, 3 assists) and Aiden Hezarkhani are missing from the lineup
All probabilities
Result
Real Salt Lake40%
Draw28%
New York City31%
Double chance
Real Salt Lake or draw69%
New York City or draw60%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- New York City: 80% of all goals in the first half (12 of 15, last 12 games)
- Real Salt Lake: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Real Salt Lake with Morgan Guilavogui starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/6 games, last 23)
- New York City: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 15)
Lineups
Real Salt Lake 3-4-3 · New York City 4-3-3
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 21 J. Arias
- 26 P. Quinton
- 98 A. Katranis
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 34 L. Moisa
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 9 M. Guilavogui
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 32 J. Shore
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
- 17 H. Wolf
Substitutes
- 18 T. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 13 J. Shokalook
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 77 R. Messalles
- 3 K. Henry
- 14 E. Somto Eneli
- 70 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 9 B. Traore
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 16 A. Martínez Batista
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
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