Major League Soccer
Sporting KC - Philadelphia Union
09/20/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
3.7
2.4
1:2
9%1:3
7%2:2
6%0:3
6%2:1
5%What influences the xG?
Sporting KC
Philadelphia Union
League
The Lab
- 1Philadelphia Union: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 2Philadelphia Union: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- 3Sporting KC: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- 4Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 5Neil Pierre: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- 6Philadelphia Union: 31% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (10 of 32)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
18%
Draw
21%
Away Win
61%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
71%
Under 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
50%
Under 3.5
50%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
39%
Away or Draw
82%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Clear gap in form: Philadelphia Union enters with 4 consecutive wins, while Sporting KC struggles in a crisis
- Strong offensive metrics: Philadelphia Union scores 3.2 goals on average and recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per game
- Calculated favorite: The mathematical model predicts a high away win probability of 61%
Risk Factors
- Vulnerable away defense: Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 1.87 goals per game on the road
- Squad loss: Sporting KC will have to play without defender O. Blorian due to a chest injury
Overview
Sporting KC (15th place, 18 points) host Philadelphia Union (7th place, 33 points)
Major League Soccer match on September 20, 2026, 12:30 AM
Clash at Children's Mercy Park between the bottom of the table and playoff-contenders
Form
Sporting KC has a weak record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent matches
However, they recently secured a 3-1 home win against Los Angeles FC
Form string: DLLLW
Philadelphia Union travels with a strong run of 4 wins and 1 draw
The visitors recently celebrated a clear 5-0 away victory against San Diego
Form string: DWWWW
Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sporting KC averages 1.08 goals scored and 2.46 goals conceded per game
The hosts are yet to record a clean sheet this season
Philadelphia Union scores an average of 1.84 goals and concedes 1.56
The visitors have already kept 6 clean sheets this season
19 of Sporting KC's 24 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
1 head-to-head match in the last two years
The match on March 3, 2024 ended in a 1-1 draw
Even historical record with no dominant winner
Key Players
Calvin Harris has 3 goals and 3 assists in 23 season appearances
Taylor Calheira recently recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games
Stephen Afrifa scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances
Milan Iloski has already scored 12 goals and provided 2 assists this season
Cavan Sullivan shines with 5 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 matches
Bruno Damiani recently registered 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games
Not nominated: Capita (2 goals, 1 assist)
Goalkeepers
Stefan Cleveland played 15 matches and is still waiting for a clean sheet
Andre Blake guarded the goal 24 times and celebrated 6 clean sheets
Influences
Home games at Children's Mercy Park average 2.8 goals
Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 home matches
The game will be played on a natural grass surface