Match report →
Sporting KC – Philadelphia Union3 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.26
Total xG
3.65
Philadelphia Union
2.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.59x league average) | +1.41 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.68 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.61 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average) | +0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Capita not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Clear gap in form: Philadelphia Union enters with 4 consecutive wins, while Sporting KC struggles in a crisis
- Strong offensive metrics: Philadelphia Union scores 3.2 goals on average and recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per game
- Calculated favorite: The mathematical model predicts a high away win probability of 61%
Risks
- Vulnerable away defense: Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 1.87 goals per game on the road
- Squad loss: Sporting KC will have to play without defender O. Blorian due to a chest injury
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC18%
Draw21%
Philadelphia Union61%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw39%
Philadelphia Union or draw82%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
1:3
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
6%
2:1
5%
3:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Philadelphia Union: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Philadelphia Union: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sporting KC: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Neil Pierre: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: 31% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (10 of 32)
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 3 M. Castillo Mosquera
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 14 C. Harris
- 19 T. Calheira
- 17 S. Afrifa
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 4 J. Lukić
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 9 B. Damiani
- 10 M. Iloski
Substitutes
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 29 S. Garfield-Reid
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 15 J. Miller
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 57 D. Borges da Silva
- 99 J. Reid
- 33 O. Wolff
- 5 J. Sery
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 31 G. Marks
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