Match report →
New England – Chicago Fire1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
New England
1.70
Total xG
3.03
Chicago Fire
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New England | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Jackson Yueill on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mamadou Fofana not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jack Elliott not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: New England scores 1.86 goals per match at home in the league, Chicago Fire concedes 1.71 away
- Table: New England is 3rd in the league with 49 points, Chicago Fire is 4th with 48 points
Risks
- Attack: Chicago Fire scores 1.71 goals per match away in the league
- Rest days: Chicago Fire with 2 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
New England45%
Draw27%
Chicago Fire29%
Double chance
New England or draw71%
Chicago Fire or draw55%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 30% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 20)
- Chicago Fire: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Chicago Fire: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
New England 4-3-3 · Chicago Fire 4-3-3
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 12 I. Feingold
- 22 E. Kohler
- 66 J. Wynder
- 23 W. Sands
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 21 B. Raines
- 8 M. Polster
- 25 P. Miller
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 41 L. Langoni
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 15 A. Gutman
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 19 J. Bamba
Substitutes
- 73 J. Gunn
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 14 J. Yueill
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
- 23 A. Mekvabishvili
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 22 M. Pineda
- 24 R. Dean
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 32 N. Allen
- 29 D. Poręba
- 18 J. Gomez
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