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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - Sporting KC

09/27/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Sporting KC
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
HDSK

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

Sporting KC

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.25
Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.25
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.16
Capita not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Houston Dynamo: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Sporting KC: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Defensive gap: Houston concedes only 0.77 goals on average at home, while Sporting KC concedes 4.11 goals away
  • Key absence: For Sporting KC, Capita (2 goals, 1 assist) is not in the starting lineup
  • Tactical metrics: Sporting KC recently averaged 5.0 shots on target with 48% possession
Risk Factors
  • Sporting KC concedes a worrying 4.11 goals per away game on average
  • Houston Dynamo averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Sporting KC is still waiting for their first clean sheet of the season
Overview

Houston Dynamo host Sporting KC at the Shell Energy Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 27, 2026, 2:30 AM

Houston Dynamo sit in 2nd place with 44 points

Sporting KC travel as the 15th-placed team with 18 points

Clear favorites role for the home side with a 46% win probability calculated by the model

Form

Houston Dynamo show a recent form of DDWLD

The home team recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Sporting KC's recent form is LLLWL

The visitors suffered 4 defeats and secured just 1 win in their last 5 games

Sporting KC comes off a defeat against Philadelphia Union

Statistics

Houston Dynamo score an average of 1.31 goals and concede 1.15 goals per game

At home, Houston's defense is very stable, conceding just 0.77 goals per match

Sporting KC score 1.16 goals on average but concede 2.52 goals per game

Away from home, Sporting KC's defense is highly vulnerable, conceding 4.11 goals per match

Sporting KC have not kept a single clean sheet this season

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Houston Dynamo won 2, Sporting KC won 1, and 2 ended in a draw

The last encounter on August 2, 2026, ended in a 2-0 home victory for Houston Dynamo

The total goals stand at 6-5 in favor of the home team

Key Players

Forward Guilherme is Houston's top performer with 14 goals, 6 assists, and a 7.8 rating

Midfielder Mateusz Bogusz contributed 6 goals and 1 assist

Lawrence Ennali has recorded 3 goals and 3 assists for the home side

For the visitors, Taylor Calheira stands out with 3 goals and André Luiz with 3 goals

Calvin Harris is also crucial with 3 goals and 4 assists for Sporting KC

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Bond plays in goal for Houston, keeping 11 clean sheets with a rating of 6.97

Stefan Cleveland represents Sporting KC in goal and is still searching for his first clean sheet with a rating of 6.64

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Shell Energy Stadium

Home advantage is prominent with Houston Dynamo conceding only 0.77 goals per home game

Sporting KC suffer from a massive away weakness, conceding 4.11 goals per away match

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