Match report ā
Sporting KC ā Portland Timbers3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.39
Total xG
3.12
Portland Timbers
1.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | ā0.61 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.60 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Lasse Berg Johnsen not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Cole Bassett on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Finn Surman not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Expected away advantage: The model calculates 1.73 expected goals for Portland Timbers and a 44% win chance
- Historical dominance: Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a 16:6 goal record
- Offensive output: Sporting KC averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Away defensive vulnerability: Portland Timbers concede an average of 2.60 goals per away match
- High defensive instability: Sporting KC concede an average of 2.41 goals per game overall this season
- Key absences: Portland Timbers are missing F. Surman (inner ligament injury) and J. Mosquera (ankle surgery)
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC30%
Draw26%
Portland Timbers44%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw56%
Portland Timbers or draw70%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portland Timbers: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (11/8 games, last 27)
- Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Portland Timbers: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 21 total)
- Sporting KC: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1 (12/5 games, last 27)
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-4-2 Ā· Portland Timbers 4-3-3
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 15 J. Miller
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. InƔcio da Silva
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 14 C. Harris
- 19 T. Calheira
- 17 S. Afrifa
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. HernƔndez Pimentel
- 2 J. Waterman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 80 J. Ortiz LandƔzuri
- 21 D. CharĆ” Zamora
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 14 V. Janssen
- 99 K. Velde
Substitutes
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 29 S. Garfield-Reid
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 12 J. Kortkamp
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 15 E. Miller
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena GuzmƔn
- 73 E. Izoita
- 17 C. Bassett
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
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