Major League Soccer
Toronto - Chicago Fire
09/05/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.6
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Toronto
Chicago Fire
League
The Lab
- 1Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 2Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- 3Chicago Fire: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 21)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
29%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Tactical advantage: Chicago Fire averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Toronto's 4.2
- Historical dominance: Chicago Fire won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings against Toronto, remaining unbeaten
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 45% probability of an away win for Chicago Fire
Risk Factors
- Defensive vulnerability: Toronto has failed to keep a single clean sheet at home this season, conceding an average of 1.44 goals per home game
- Missing personnel: Toronto has to play without Kobe Franklin (2 goals, 2 assists) and Niklas Dorsch (2 goals) in the lineup
Overview
Toronto (9th place, 25 points) host Chicago Fire (3rd place, 37 points)
Major League Soccer match on September 5, 2026, 11:30 PM
BMO Field will host the match
The roles are clear, with Chicago Fire entering as favorites
Form
Toronto enters with a form of DWDWD
Their last games resulted in 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses
Chicago Fire travels with a form of WWWDD
The guests recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Toronto scores an average of 1.45 goals and concedes 1.73 goals per game
In home games, Toronto's goal average is 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded
Chicago Fire averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded away from home
The guests have kept 6 clean sheets overall this season
Both teams scored in 18 of Toronto's 22 matches this season
Head-to-Head
There have been 5 head-to-head matches so far
Chicago Fire dominated with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 wins for Toronto
The goal difference stands at 6:11 from Toronto's perspective
The last encounter ended in a 2:1 win for Chicago Fire on May 24, 2026
Key Players
DĆ”niel SallĆ³i impresses with 6 goals and 4 assists in 22 appearances
Josh Sargent contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in 15 season appearances
Djordje Mihailovic has registered 2 goals and 3 assists
Philip Zinckernagel shines for the guests with 5 goals and 8 assists
Maren Haile-Selassie contributed 5 goals and 4 assists in 21 matches
Robert Lewandowski recorded 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 appearances
Goalkeepers
Luka Gavran is in goal for Toronto, holding an average rating of 6.77
He has kept 3 clean sheets with his team this season
Chris Brady guards the goal for Chicago Fire with a rating of 6.87
He has recorded 6 clean sheets overall this season
Influences
BMO Field features a natural grass surface
Stadium history shows high-scoring matches, averaging 3.8 goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 matches played at this venue