Match report →
Toronto – Chicago Fire4 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Toronto
1.09
Total xG
2.58
Chicago Fire
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toronto | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.99 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Kobe Franklin on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Niklas Dorsch not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Robin Lod on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Bamba not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Barroso on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Chicago Fire averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Toronto's 4.2
- Historical dominance: Chicago Fire won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings against Toronto, remaining unbeaten
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 45% probability of an away win for Chicago Fire
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Toronto has failed to keep a single clean sheet at home this season, conceding an average of 1.44 goals per home game
- Missing personnel: Toronto has to play without Kobe Franklin (2 goals, 2 assists) and Niklas Dorsch (2 goals) in the lineup
All probabilities
Result
Toronto26%
Draw29%
Chicago Fire45%
Double chance
Toronto or draw55%
Chicago Fire or draw74%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
4:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Chicago Fire: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Toronto 4-2-3-1 · Chicago Fire 4-3-3
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 20 D. Salloi
- 9 J. Sargent
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 5 S. Rogers
- 3 J. Elliott
- 15 A. Gutman
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 12 P. Dithejane
Substitutes
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 19 K. Franklin
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 90 L. Morgan
- 15 N. Gomis
- 38 J. Gilman
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 17 R. Lod
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 32 N. Allen
- 29 D. Poręba
- 47 S. Williams
- 18 J. Gomez
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