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New York City – Nashville SC0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
New York City
1.27
Total xG
2.53
Nashville SC
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York City | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.52 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Keaton Parks on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Visitors on the rise: Nashville SC currently averaged 2.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.4
- Struggling hosts: New York City's goal production stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.6
- Form gap: Nashville SC recorded 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while New York City are winless in 5 games
Risks
- Midfield absences: Injured K. Alexander Parks (groin injury) and M. Moralez (cruciate ligament tear) weaken New York City's central options
- Balanced model prediction: Despite the large table gap, the model calculates a completely open match with 35% win probability for both sides
- Limited data availability for duel statistics over the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
New York City35%
Draw30%
Nashville SC35%
Double chance
New York City or draw65%
Nashville SC or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- New York City: 82% of all goals in the first half (14 of 17, last 12 games)
- New York City: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)
- New York City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
- Nashville SC: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
New York City 4-2-3-1 · Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 6 J. Sands
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 9 B. Traore
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 11 E. Saad
- 9 S. Surridge
Substitutes
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 16 A. Martínez Batista
- 27 C. Flax
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
- 1 J. Willis
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 19 A. Muyl
- 22 J. Bauer
- 37 A. Qasem
- 14 S. Mohammed
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