Major League Soccer
New York City - Nashville SC
09/04/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
6%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
New York City
Nashville SC
League
The Lab
- 1Nashville SC: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- 2New York City: 82% of all goals in the first half (14 of 17, last 12 games)
- 3New York City: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)
- 4New York City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
- 5Nashville SC: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
30%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Visitors on the rise: Nashville SC currently averaged 2.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.4
- Struggling hosts: New York City's goal production stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.6
- Form gap: Nashville SC recorded 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while New York City are winless in 5 games
Risk Factors
- Midfield absences: Injured K. Alexander Parks (groin injury) and M. Moralez (cruciate ligament tear) weaken New York City's central options
- Balanced model prediction: Despite the large table gap, the model calculates a completely open match with 35% win probability for both sides
- Limited data availability for duel statistics over the last 5 matches
Overview
New York City host Nashville SC at Yankee Stadium
Major League Soccer match on September 4, 2026, 11:30 PM
The hosts are in 7th place with 28 points
Nashville SC travel as league leaders with 52 points
Form
New York City form: DLLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Recent run shows 3 draws and 2 losses
Nashville SC form: DWWWW
Recent run shows 4 wins and 1 draw
Statistics
New York City average 1.64 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded
At home they score 1.67 and concede 1.2 goals on average
Nashville SC average 2.14 goals scored and only 0.77 goals conceded
In away matches the league leaders concede 1.0 goals on average
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches in recent years
Both teams won 2 games each with 1 draw
Goal difference is 8-7 in favor of New York City
Last encounter ended 2-1 for Nashville SC on May 24, 2026
Key Players
NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau shines with 14 season goals and 3 assists
AgustĆn Ojeda contributed 5 goals and 6 assists so far
Luighi scored 2 goals during the current season
Sam Surridge leads the visitors with 13 goals scored
Hany Mukhtar already scored 10 goals and provided 6 assists
Cristian Espinoza recorded 9 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Matt Freese is in goal for New York City with an average rating of 6.92
Brian Schwake guards the Nashville SC goal with an average rating of 7.1
The visiting goalkeeper has already recorded 1 assist this season
Nashville SC kept 10 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match is played on grass at Yankee Stadium
The historical venue stats show an average of 4.4 goals per game
New York City scored 25 goals at home and conceded 18
Nashville SC scored 11 goals and conceded 5 in their few away matches