Match report →
Orlando City – Toronto3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Orlando City
1.45
Total xG
2.40
Toronto
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Orlando City | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.71 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.49 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Justin Ellis on the bench (1 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Griffin Dorsey on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Eduard Atuesta on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Djordje Mihailovic not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: Both teams are scoring more recently than their season average (Orlando 2.0 vs 1.71; Toronto 2.4 vs 1.58)
- Tactical approach: Orlando is possession-dominant (56% possession, 5.0 shots on target), Toronto counter-oriented (42% possession, 6.0 shots on target)
- Defensive home advantage: Orlando concedes only 1.42 goals at home compared to Toronto's 2.50 goals on the road
Risks
- Fatigue issues: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Missing key creator: Djordje Mihailovic (2 goals, 5 assists) is injured and absent from Toronto's lineup
- High defensive vulnerability: Orlando City has already conceded 56 goals this season (avg 2.33 per game)
All probabilities
Result
Orlando City47%
Draw30%
Toronto23%
Double chance
Orlando City or draw77%
Toronto or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Dániel Sallói: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Orlando City: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (8 of 25)
Lineups
Orlando City 4-2-3-1 · Toronto 4-2-3-1
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 10 M. Ojeda
- 14 T. Spicer
- 7 A. Griezmann
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 20 D. Salloi
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 9 J. Sargent
Substitutes
- 9 D. Dike
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 22 J. Ellis
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 6 R. Jansson
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
- 78 M. Henry
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 19 K. Franklin
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 44 R. Edwards
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 15 N. Gomis
- 38 J. Gilman
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