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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Toronto

09/12/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Toronto
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
OCTOR

Orlando City

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.58
Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.49
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.09
Justin Ellis on the bench (1 goals, 8 assists)
Griffin Dorsey on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Eduard Atuesta on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

Toronto

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.71
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.20
Djordje Mihailovic not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Alonso Coello on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 2
    DĂĄniel SallĂłi: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Orlando City: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (8 of 25)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Both teams are scoring more recently than their season average (Orlando 2.0 vs 1.71; Toronto 2.4 vs 1.58)
  • Tactical approach: Orlando is possession-dominant (56% possession, 5.0 shots on target), Toronto counter-oriented (42% possession, 6.0 shots on target)
  • Defensive home advantage: Orlando concedes only 1.42 goals at home compared to Toronto's 2.50 goals on the road
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue issues: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Missing key creator: Djordje Mihailovic (2 goals, 5 assists) is injured and absent from Toronto's lineup
  • High defensive vulnerability: Orlando City has already conceded 56 goals this season (avg 2.33 per game)
Overview

Orlando City in 6th place with 31 points host Toronto in 10th place with 29 points

Major League Soccer fixture on September 12, 2026, 7:30 PM

A tight matchup in the battle for playoff spots at the Inter&Co Stadium

Form

Orlando City holds a form of LWDWW with two consecutive wins

Home form summary shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Toronto enters with a form of DWDDW and is undefeated in five matches

Away form summary shows 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Orlando City averages 1.71 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded per game

At home their defense is tighter with 1.42 goals conceded

Toronto averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.79 goals conceded per game

On the road Toronto concedes an average of 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

Even head-to-head history with 4 direct matches played

Both teams have won 2 matches each with 0 draws

An even goal difference of 9:9 goals

The last encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 4-2 win for Toronto

Key Players

Antoine Griezmann shines for Orlando City with 7 goals and 3 assists in 9 appearances

MartĂ­n Ojeda contributed 11 goals and 1 assist in 18 matches

Tyrese Spicer has 6 goals and 2 assists for the home side

Josh Sargent leads Toronto with 7 goals and 2 assists

DĂĄniel SallĂłi has contributed 7 goals and 6 assists for the away side

Derrick Etienne Jr. registered 4 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Maxime Crépeau start in goal for Orlando City keeping 3 clean sheets in 23 appearances

Luka Gavran is in goal for Toronto keeping 3 clean sheets in 24 appearances

Influences

The match takes place at the Inter&Co Stadium on natural grass

Venue stats show an average of 2.0 goals per game and a 60% BTTS rate

Both Orlando City and Toronto have had only 3 days of rest since their last match

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