Match report →
Seattle Sounders – New York RB0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Seattle Sounders
1.62
Total xG
3.09
New York RB
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Seattle Sounders | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Emil Forsberg on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Mijahir Jiménez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Artificial turf advantage: New York RB lost both of their away matches on artificial turf this season with a 2:8 goal difference
- Tactical approach: Seattle Sounders averaged 42% possession and 3.4 shots on target in recent matches, playing on the counter
- Defensive instability: New York RB conceded an average of 2.09 goals per game this season and 2.3 goals in away matches
Risks
- Weak goal production: Seattle's goal production is stalling recently with an average of 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.2
- Low offensive activity: Seattle averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Data limitation: Limited head-to-head history data between the two teams
All probabilities
Result
Seattle Sounders40%
Draw27%
New York RB33%
Double chance
Seattle Sounders or draw67%
New York RB or draw60%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Seattle Sounders: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 11 total)
- Seattle Sounders: 10 of 24 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Cristian Roldán starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (11/7 games, last 21)
- New York RB: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- New York RB: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
Lineups
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 · New York RB 4-3-3
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 16 A. Roldan
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 5 N. Tolo
- 7 C. Roldan
- 45 P. Kingston
- 13 J. Morris
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 9 D. Joveljić
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 2 J. Che
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 37 M. Sofo
- 7 C. Cowell
- 16 J. Hall
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
Substitutes
- 17 P. Arriola
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 31 H. Dotson
- 35 A. Lopez
- 37 S. Brunell
- 90 S. Gomez
- 4 R. Sailor
- 20 K. Kim
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 12 D. Nealis
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 59 D. Padelford
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 26 T. Parker
- 17 C. Harper
- 91 M. Jiménez Murillo
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