Match report →
Sporting KC – Los Angeles FC3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.15
Total xG
2.64
Los Angeles FC
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Capita on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Shapi Suleymanov not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jake Davis not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Mark Delgado not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jacob Shaffelburg on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ryan Hollingshead on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- League table disparity: 15th-placed Sporting KC faces 3rd-placed Los Angeles FC
- Historical dominance of the visitors: Los Angeles FC won four of the last five head-to-head matches with a 12-1 goal difference
- Huge defensive discrepancy: Los Angeles FC kept 13 clean sheets this season, while Sporting KC has kept none
Risks
- Schedule disadvantage for the visitors: Los Angeles FC had only 3 days of rest since their last match compared to Sporting KC's 7 days
- Weakened home squad: Sporting KC is missing key players due to injuries, including O. Blorian
- Away vulnerability of Los Angeles FC: The visitors concede significantly more goals on the road (1.44 per game) than at home (0.69)
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC28%
Draw29%
Los Angeles FC44%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw56%
Los Angeles FC or draw72%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · Los Angeles FC 4-3-3
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 3 M. Castillo Mosquera
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 14 C. Harris
- 19 T. Calheira
- 17 S. Afrifa
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 6 I. Lima
- 22 J. Terry
- 9 A. Sieb
- 7 H. Son
- 99 D. Bouanga
Substitutes
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 29 S. Garfield-Reid
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 15 J. Miller
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 57 D. Borges da Silva
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 42 A. Cunningham
- 8 M. Delgado
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 31 C. Carter
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 33 A. Long
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