Match report →
Real Salt Lake – Vancouver Whitecaps0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Real Salt Lake
1.16
Total xG
3.03
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Salt Lake | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | +0.57 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| D. Luna not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Bruno Caicedo on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Mathías Laborda on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ryan Gauld on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Andrés Cubas on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Offensive gap: Vancouver Whitecaps possess a far stronger attack with an average of 2.21 goals per game compared to Real Salt Lake's 1.54
- Tactical dynamics: Vancouver showed dominant play, averaging 6.8 shots on target recently compared to Real Salt Lake's 4.4
- Model favorite: Mathematical analysis favors the visitors, calculating a 52% probability for an away win
Risks
- The knee injury of midfielder D. Luna (5 goals, 3 assists) weakens Real Salt Lake's offensive capabilities
- Vancouver is not starting key players Bruno Caicedo (4 goals, 3 assists), Mathías Laborda (3 goals, 3 assists), and Ryan Gauld (3 goals, 1 assist)
- Real Salt Lake's defense has been vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.63 goals per match this season
All probabilities
Result
Real Salt Lake22%
Draw25%
Vancouver Whitecaps52%
Double chance
Real Salt Lake or draw48%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw78%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (12 points lost)
- Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Bruno Caicedo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Real Salt Lake with Morgan Guilavogui starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/6 games, last 24)
- Real Salt Lake: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Real Salt Lake 3-4-3 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 25 C. Guske
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
- 9 M. Guilavogui
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 28 T. Johnson
- 59 J. Badwal
- 8 O. Larraz
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 13 T. Müller
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 6 S. Spierings
- 18 T. Booth
- 13 J. Shokalook
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 29 S. Junqua
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 98 A. Katranis
- 14 E. Somto Eneli
- 70 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 70 R. Muati Modesto
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 3 S. Adekugbe
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 25 R. Gauld
- 23 A. Cvetković
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →