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Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - Vancouver Whitecaps

09/20/2026, 01:30 AM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.2
Total xG
3.0
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
RSLVW

Real Salt Lake

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.13
D. Luna not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Vancouver Whitecaps

Attack strength (1.5x league average)
+0.57
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.37
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.09
Bruno Caicedo on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
MathĆ­as Laborda on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Ryan Gauld on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
AndrƩs Cubas on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Bruno Caicedo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake with Morgan Guilavogui starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/6 games, last 24)

  • 5
    Real Salt Lake: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

25%

Away Win

52%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

48%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Offensive gap: Vancouver Whitecaps possess a far stronger attack with an average of 2.21 goals per game compared to Real Salt Lake's 1.54
  • Tactical dynamics: Vancouver showed dominant play, averaging 6.8 shots on target recently compared to Real Salt Lake's 4.4
  • Model favorite: Mathematical analysis favors the visitors, calculating a 52% probability for an away win
Risk Factors
  • The knee injury of midfielder D. Luna (5 goals, 3 assists) weakens Real Salt Lake's offensive capabilities
  • Vancouver is not starting key players Bruno Caicedo (4 goals, 3 assists), MathĆ­as Laborda (3 goals, 3 assists), and Ryan Gauld (3 goals, 1 assist)
  • Real Salt Lake's defense has been vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.63 goals per match this season
Overview

Real Salt Lake hosts league leaders Vancouver Whitecaps

Major League Soccer match on September 20, 2026, 3:30 AM

Real Salt Lake is currently in 11th place while Vancouver aims to defend the top spot

Form

The hosts show a negative trend with a form of LLDLL

Real Salt Lake has 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps travel with a form of WWLWL

The visitors recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Statistics

Real Salt Lake averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per game

Vancouver Whitecaps averages an impressive 2.21 goals scored and only 0.96 goals conceded

The visitors have kept 10 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Real Salt Lake won 2 and Vancouver Whitecaps won 3

None of the last 5 direct duels ended in a draw

The last match on February 22, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for Vancouver

Key Players

For the hosts, Sergi Solans is the top scorer with 9 goals

Morgan Guilavogui has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists

Noel Caliskan impresses in midfield with a rating of 7.20

Vancouver's Brian White leads his team with 15 goals

Thomas MĆ¼ller shines with 7 goals and 5 assists

Emmanuel Sabbi has recorded 4 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Rafael Cabral played 23 matches for Real Salt Lake and kept 2 clean sheets

Yohei Takaoka also has 23 appearances for the Whitecaps with 10 clean sheets

Influences

America First Field averages 3.6 total goals per game in recent history

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at this venue

Vancouver is strong on the road, averaging 2.1 away goals scored per match

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