Match report â
Dallas â Seattle Sounders1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Dallas
1.69
Total xG
3.06
Seattle Sounders
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Dallas | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match) | +0.92 | +0.92 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | â0.53 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | â0.20 | |
| Logan Farrington not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jordan Morris on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Hassani Dotson on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Danny Musovski not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Seattle Sounders momentum with 4 wins in their last 5 matches (averaging 2.6 goals recently)
- Head-to-head dominance with Seattle Sounders winning 4 of the last 5 encounters
- Dallas home scoring rate of 1.92 goals per game
Risks
- Dallas goal production recently dropped to 1.8 goals compared to their 2.1 season average
- Seattle Sounders concede an average of 1.36 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Dallas44%
Draw27%
Seattle Sounders30%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Dallas or draw70%
Seattle Sounders or draw56%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 19 total)
- Seattle Sounders: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Cristian RoldĂĄn starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (17/8 games, last 28)
- Seattle Sounders: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Dallas: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')
- Dallas: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 20)
Lineups
Dallas 3-4-2-1 ¡ Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 18 S. Moore
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 10 S. Moreno
- 9 P. Musa
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 7 C. Roldan
- 37 S. Brunell
- 90 S. Gomez
- 11 A. RusnĂĄk
- 17 P. Arriola
- 9 D. JoveljiÄ
Substitutes
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 12 C. Cappis
- 14 H. Johansson
- 28 S. Sarver
- 32 N. Norris
- 27 C. Swann
- 40 J. Sirois
- 7 D. Job
- 8 C. Clark
- 27 J. Ferreira
- 16 A. Roldan
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 28 Y. GĂłmez Andrade
- 31 H. Dotson
- 13 J. Morris
- 45 P. Kingston
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