Match report →
Colorado Rapids – Real Salt Lake1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
1.70
Total xG
2.65
Real Salt Lake
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.73 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Dante Sealy not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Diego Luna on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Juan Manuel Sanabria on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Stijn Spierings not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage with a calculated home win probability of 54% for Colorado Rapids
- Defensive strength at home with Colorado conceding only 0.64 goals on average
- Away weakness of Real Salt Lake conceding an average of 2.71 goals per match on the road
Risks
- Colorado Rapids recently struggled in front of goal averaging 0.8 compared to their season average of 1.5
- Real Salt Lake's recent goal output has also declined to 1.4 goals per match
- Historically low-scoring matches at this venue with an average of only 1.6 goals over the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids54%
Draw27%
Real Salt Lake19%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw81%
Real Salt Lake or draw46%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)
- Colorado Rapids: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-3
Colorado Rapids
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 4 R. Cannon
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 88 Y. Maziz
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 3 K. Henry
- 21 J. Arias
- 29 S. Junqua
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 7 P. Ruíz
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 98 A. Katranis
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
- 9 M. Guilavogui
Substitutes
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 12 J. Atencio
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 77 D. Yapi
- 33 K. Thompson
- 32 D. Phillip
- 49 N.Tchoumba
- 61 B. Dowd
- 4 L. Engel
- 25 C. Guske
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 34 L. Moisa
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 10 D. Luna
- 70 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
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