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Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids - Real Salt Lake

08/30/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Colorado Rapids
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Real Salt Lake
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
CRRSL

Colorado Rapids

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.43
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Dante Sealy not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Real Salt Lake

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.73
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.09
Diego Luna on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Juan Manuel Sanabria on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Stijn Spierings not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    Colorado Rapids: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage with a calculated home win probability of 54% for Colorado Rapids
  • Defensive strength at home with Colorado conceding only 0.64 goals on average
  • Away weakness of Real Salt Lake conceding an average of 2.71 goals per match on the road
Risk Factors
  • Colorado Rapids recently struggled in front of goal averaging 0.8 compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Real Salt Lake's recent goal output has also declined to 1.4 goals per match
  • Historically low-scoring matches at this venue with an average of only 1.6 goals over the last 5 games
Overview

Colorado Rapids hosts Real Salt Lake at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Both teams are tied on 28 points in 7th and 8th place of the MLS

A direct battle for the playoff positions

Form

Colorado Rapids shows mixed form with three wins and two losses

Real Salt Lake is winless in five games with three losses and two draws

Form Colorado: LWWWL

Form Real Salt Lake: LDDLL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Colorado Rapids score 1.43 goals and concede 1.33 on average this season

Their home defense is strong, conceding only 0.64 goals per game

Real Salt Lake score 1.71 goals away but concede a heavy 2.71 goals per away match

Colorado recently averaged 3.4 shots on target per game with 54.6% possession

Real Salt Lake averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches with 45.4% possession

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches in recent years

Real Salt Lake leads with three wins against two for Colorado

The last encounter ended 2-1 for Real Salt Lake on May 17, 2026

Key Players

Rafael Navarro leads the Colorado attack with 10 goals and 3 assists

Paxten Aaronson contributed 4 goals and 5 assists in the Rapids midfield

For Real Salt Lake, Sergi Solans is the top threat with 9 goals scored

Not selected for Colorado: Dante Sealy (0G/2A)

Not selected for Real Salt Lake: Diego Luna (5G/3A), Juan Manuel Sanabria (1G/4A), Stijn Spierings (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Adam Beaudry is in goal for Colorado Rapids

Rafael Cabral played 19 games for Real Salt Lake keeping 2 clean sheets

Colorado has recorded 7 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Home advantage is clear with Colorado conceding only 9 goals in 14 home games

Stadium history shows a low average of 1.6 goals per game over the last 5 matches

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