Match report â
Los Angeles FC â Austin3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Los Angeles FC
2.07
Total xG
3.08
Austin
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Los Angeles FC | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.23 | +1.23 |
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | â1.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | â0.70 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | â0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | â0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | â0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Mathieu ChoiniĂšre on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jon Bell on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong home defense: Los Angeles FC concede an average of just 0.71 goals per match at BMO Stadium
- Away defensive vulnerability: Austin concede an average of 2.67 goals per away match
- Attacking metric: Los Angeles FC averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Scoring slowdown: Los Angeles FC averaged just 1.2 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.69
- Away defensive weakness: Austin concede an average of 2.67 goals per away game
- Recent form dip: Los Angeles FC have won only 1 of their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Los Angeles FC60%
Draw23%
Austin17%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Los Angeles FC or draw84%
Austin or draw40%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
7%
3:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Austin: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 14)
- Austin: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Austin: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Austin: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Los Angeles FC: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Los Angeles FC 4-2-3-1 · Austin 3-4-3
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 8 M. Delgado
- 6 I. Lima
- 81 L. Walta
- 7 H. Son
- 9 A. Sieb
- 99 D. Bouanga
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 38 E. Torres
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 21 C. RamĂrez
- 9 B. VĂĄzquez Toledo
- 11 F. Torres PĂ©rez
Substitutes
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 4 E. Segura MartĂnez
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 20 S. Vasquez Cabrera
- 43 T. dos Santos Rebelo
- 77 P. PĆacheta
- 6 I. Sånchez Farrés
- 10 M. Uzuni
- 12 D. Las
- 15 J. Bell
- 32 M. Burton
- 35 M. ÄorÄeviÄ
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 22 C. Applewhite
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