Match report ā
LA Galaxy ā Portland Timbers2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.71
Total xG
3.29
Portland Timbers
1.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.65 | +0.65 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ā0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | ā0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | ā0.02 | |
| Erik Thommy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hirving Lozano not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Cole Bassett on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Finn Surman not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: LA Galaxy averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, facing a Portland Timbers defense conceding 2.64 goals per away game
- Form gap: LA Galaxy averaged 1.8 goals per match recently, while Portland Timbers remain winless in their last 5 games
- Model signal: The calculations indicate a 40% chance of a home win and a 66% probability of both teams scoring
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability for Portland Timbers with an average of 2.64 goals conceded per away game
- LA Galaxy conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match over their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy40%
Draw26%
Portland Timbers34%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw66%
Portland Timbers or draw60%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portland Timbers: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/5 games, last 28)
- Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1 Ā· Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 2 L. Calegari
- 15 J. Haak
- 25 C. GarcƩs Torres
- 14 J. Nelson
- 17 P. RuĆz
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 18 M. Reus
- 21 R. Taylor
- 99 J. De Mello
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. HernƔndez Pimentel
- 2 J. Waterman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 80 J. Ortiz LandƔzuri
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 99 K. Velde
- 14 V. Janssen
Substitutes
- 1 N. MiÄoviÄ
- 3 J. Aude
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 8 L. Sanabria MagolƩ
- 22 E. Wynder
- 26 H. Miller
- 27 E. Thommy
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 3 M. Williamson
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 15 E. Miller
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena GuzmƔn
- 73 E. Izoita
- 17 C. Bassett
- 21 D. CharĆ” Zamora
- 22 O. Fernandez
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