Match report →
Nashville SC – Chicago Fire3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Nashville SC
1.42
Total xG
2.74
Chicago Fire
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nashville SC | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.87 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| W. Madrigal Molina not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home advantage and strong defense: Nashville concedes only 0.67 goals per home game on average
- Form discrepancy: Nashville is first in the league with form WWDLD, while Chicago is winless in their last five matches
- Tactical focus: Chicago averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession of 54%
Risks
- Defensive decline: Nashville concedes 1.5 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 0.95
- Strong opponent threat: Chicago averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Last meeting lost: Chicago won the last head-to-head encounter 1-0 in April 2026
All probabilities
Result
Nashville SC38%
Draw29%
Chicago Fire33%
Double chance
Nashville SC or draw67%
Chicago Fire or draw62%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 21)
- Robert Lewandowski: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 · Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 11 E. Saad
- 9 S. Surridge
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 3 J. Elliott
- 32 N. Allen
- 15 A. Gutman
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 17 R. Lod
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 9 R. Lewandowski
Substitutes
- 1 J. Willis
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 19 A. Muyl
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 22 J. Bauer
- 37 A. Qasem
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 23 A. Mekvabishvili
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 19 J. Bamba
- 22 M. Pineda
- 44 J. Cohen
- 5 S. Rogers
- 29 D. Poręba
- 18 J. Gomez
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