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Major League Soccer

Vancouver Whitecaps - DC United

09/27/2026, 02:30 AM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.9
Total xG
2.8
DC United
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
VWDU

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.86
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Ryan Gauld on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
AndrƩs Cubas not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)

DC United

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.10
Tai Baribo not in squad (14 goals, 0 assists)
Louis Munteanu not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    DC United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 2
    DC United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 3
    Bruno Caicedo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Vancouver Whitecaps: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical edge: Home win probability is calculated at 59% by the model
  • Surface factor: Vancouver won 6 of 10 matches on artificial turf while DC United is winless on this surface
  • Home attack: The Whitecaps average 2.29 goals scored per home match
Risk Factors
  • Squad depletion for the visitors: Tai Baribo and Louis Munteanu are missing, leaving only 63% of the usual goal threat available
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head records
Overview

Vancouver Whitecaps host DC United at BC Place Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 27, 2026, 4:30 AM

Clash between league leaders Vancouver with 49 points and 11th-placed DC United with 29 points

Form

Vancouver Whitecaps with form WLWLW in recent matches

Home team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses lately

DC United travels with form LDWDL

Away side registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their past games

Statistics

Vancouver averages 2.29 goals scored per home game

Defensive record stands at just 0.79 goals conceded per home match

DC United concedes an average of 1.40 goals in away fixtures

Visitors average 1.30 goals scored on the road

Key Players

Brian White leads the attack with 16 goals this season

Thomas MĆ¼ller has registered 8 goals and 5 assists so far

Emmanuel Sabbi has 4 goals and 3 assists in the current campaign

Lucas Bartlett scored 3 goals this season for the visitors

Peglow contributed 1 goal and 4 assists

Keisuke Kurokawa has already provided 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Yohei Takaoka starts for the Whitecaps and kept 11 clean sheets

Sean Johnson plays for DC United and recorded 6 clean sheets

Influences

Strong home record for Vancouver with 6 wins and 3 losses on artificial turf

DC United is yet to win on artificial turf with 2 losses and 1 draw

BC Place Stadium features an average of 3.2 goals per game

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