Match report →
LA Galaxy – Austin4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.79
Total xG
2.93
Austin
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.57 | |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.34 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Robert Taylor on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Erik Thommy on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Myrto Uzuni on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Facundo Torres on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| J. Rosales on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Brandon Vazquez on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: LA Galaxy conceded 1.25 goals per game at home in the league, Austin concede 2.25 goals per game away
- Form: LA Galaxy recorded 2 wins in their last 5 games, Austin suffered 4 losses in the same period
Risks
- Rest: Austin with 2 days since their last game
- Head-to-head: Austin won 3 of the 5 previous meetings, LA Galaxy 2
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy51%
Draw26%
Austin23%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw77%
Austin or draw49%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.79 : 1.15, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LA Galaxy: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Austin: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Austin: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)
- Austin: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- LA Galaxy with João Klauss starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (10/17 games, last 30)
- Austin: 3 comebacks in 7 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-3-3 · Austin 3-4-3
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 26 H. Miller
- 15 J. Haak
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 14 J. Nelson
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 18 M. Reus
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 11 H. Lozano Bahena
- 99 J. De Mello
- 28 J. Paintsil
Austin
- 12 D. Las
- 3 M. Desler
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 32 M. Burton
- 38 E. Torres
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 21 C. Ramírez
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
Substitutes
- 7 K. Furuhashi
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 22 E. Wynder
- 27 E. Thommy
- 21 R. Taylor
- 2 L. Calegari
- 1 B. Stuver
- 2 R. Thomas
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 10 M. Uzuni
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 25 Stefan Dobrijevic
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