Match report →
Los Angeles FC – Minnesota United1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Los Angeles FC
1.67
Total xG
3.22
Minnesota United
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Los Angeles FC | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.64 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Wil Trapp not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Los Angeles FC scores 1.94 goals per game at home, Minnesota United concedes 2.19 per game away
- Table: Los Angeles FC is 6th after 32 games with 47 points, Minnesota United is 13th with 38 points
Risks
- Form: Minnesota United is unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws), Los Angeles FC got 1 win
- Attack: Minnesota United scores 1.75 goals per game away in the league
All probabilities
Result
Los Angeles FC40%
Draw26%
Minnesota United34%
Double chance
Los Angeles FC or draw66%
Minnesota United or draw60%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.67 : 1.55, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Minnesota United: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Los Angeles FC: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Los Angeles FC 4-2-3-1 · Minnesota United 4-4-2
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 6 I. Lima
- 9 A. Sieb
- 7 H. Son
- 81 L. Walta
- 99 D. Bouanga
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 52 C. Valerius
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 23 M. Duggan
- 13 A. Markanich
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 25 N. Triantis
- 30 O. Géne
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 9 K. Yeboah
Substitutes
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 8 M. Delgado
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 20 S. Vasquez Cabrera
- 11 M. Malone
- 16 A. Jackson
- 1 A. Smir
- 3 K. Duncan
- 6 P. Stroud
- 15 M. Boxall
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 27 D. Taylor
- 22 M. Caldeira
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