Match report →
Minnesota United – LA Galaxy2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
1.87
Total xG
2.92
LA Galaxy
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.53 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.42 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Marco Reus on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 36% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical absence for the visitors: Without Marco Reus, only 36% of the usual goal threat is available
- Minnesota United averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 55%
Risks
- Minnesota United concedes a high average of 1.72 goals per match this season
- LA Galaxy concedes an average of 1.85 goals in away matches
- Slump in form for Minnesota United with 3 consecutive losses recently
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United55%
Draw25%
LA Galaxy20%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw80%
LA Galaxy or draw45%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- LA Galaxy: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (8 points lost)
- Minnesota United: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Minnesota United 3-4-1-2 · LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 23 M. Duggan
- 5 N. Romero
- 3 K. Duncan
- 30 O. Géne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 9 K. Yeboah
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 2 L. Calegari
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 15 J. Haak
- 3 J. Aude
- 27 E. Thommy
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 21 R. Taylor
- 11 H. Lozano Bahena
- 26 H. Miller
- 7 K. Furuhashi
Substitutes
- 11 M. Malone
- 16 A. Jackson
- 1 A. Smir
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 25 N. Triantis
- 27 D. Taylor
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 1 N. Mićović
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 14 J. Nelson
- 18 M. Reus
- 99 J. De Mello
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 16 I. Parente
- 76 T.Elgersma
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