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Major League Soccer

Charlotte - Chicago Fire

09/26/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Charlotte
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Chicago Fire
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CHACF

Charlotte

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.05
Idan Toklomati not in squad (9 goals, 2 assists)
Liel Abada not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
David Schnegg on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

Chicago Fire

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Robert Lewandowski not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Robin Lod not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Andrew Gutman on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Charlotte: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Charlotte: 62% of all goals in the first half (15 of 24, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Chicago Fire: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

28%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage for the home team: Charlotte is unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Chicago Fire is waiting for a win for 5 matches
  • Strong home record meets away weakness: Charlotte concedes only 0.93 goals on average at home, while Chicago allows 1.85 goals away
  • Tactical trend: Charlotte scores more frequently now with 2.3 goals than their season average, while Chicago Fire's scoring has stalled at 1.6
Risk Factors
  • Charlotte has to play without Idan Toklomati (9 goals) and Liel Abada (5 goals), weakening their attacking threat
  • Chicago Fire is missing key players like Robert Lewandowski (6 goals) and Robin Lod (4 goals) in their starting lineup
  • Chicago Fire concedes an average of 1.85 goals per away game
Overview

Charlotte (4th place, 43 points) hosts Chicago Fire (5th place, 39 points)

Direct clash in the upper part of the MLS table

Match on September 26, 2026, 11:30 PM at Bank of America Stadium

Both teams are fighting for crucial playoff points

Form

Charlotte is unbeaten in their last 5 games (Form: WDWDW)

Recently achieved a 2-1 victory against DC United

Chicago Fire is winless in their last 5 games (Form: DDDLL)

Recently suffered a 0-3 defeat against Nashville SC

Statistics

Charlotte scores an average of 1.86 goals per game at home

They concede an average of only 0.93 goals in home matches

Chicago Fire concedes an average of 1.85 goals in away matches

This season, both teams have had 18 matches where both teams scored

Head-to-Head

Chicago Fire leads the head-to-head history with 3 wins out of 5 matches

Charlotte was able to win 2 direct encounters

None of their previous meetings ended in a draw

The last duel on August 2, 2026, was won by Chicago Fire 2-1

Key Players

Pep Biel has scored 12 goals and provided 7 assists this season

Ashley Westwood contributed 3 goals and 4 assists so far

Allan Saint-Maximin has recorded 1 goal and 3 assists

Philip Zinckernagel stands out with 5 goals and 9 assists

Maren Haile-Selassie has scored 8 goals and provided 4 assists

Jonathan Bamba contributed 2 goals and 2 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Kristijan Kahlina played in 26 matches and recorded 5 clean sheets

Josh Cohen has not made any appearances for the visitors this season

Influences

The match takes place on artificial turf at the Bank of America Stadium

Charlotte has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses on artificial turf

Chicago Fire has played only one match on artificial turf, which ended in a draw

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