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Major League Soccer

Dallas - Los Angeles FC

09/27/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Dallas
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Los Angeles FC
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DALLAF

Dallas

Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Petar Musa on the bench (18 goals, 5 assists)
Ran Binyamin on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Ramiro on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Bernard Kamungo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Los Angeles FC

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.12
Denis Bouanga on the bench (14 goals, 5 assists)
Heung-min Son on the bench (6 goals, 10 assists)
Mathieu Choinière not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
76% of goal output missing (only 26% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Dallas: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)

  • 4
    Los Angeles FC: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

27%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Massive drop in quality for Los Angeles FC with only 27% of active goal threat available as key players Denis Bouanga and Heung-min Son are missing
  • Clear form advantage for Dallas who are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (DWWWD)
  • Strong home attack for Dallas averaging 1.85 goals per game at Toyota Stadium
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability for Dallas who concede an average of 1.62 goals per game this season
  • Away weakness for Los Angeles FC with 1.64 goals conceded per away match
  • Dallas missing Petar Musa might limit their offensive clinical efficiency
Overview

Dallas (4th place, 44 points) host Los Angeles FC (6th place, 41 points) at Toyota Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 27, 2026, 2:30 AM

A close match in the upper half of the standings is expected

Form

Dallas is unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of DWWWD

Their last match ended in a 0-0 draw against Austin after 3 consecutive wins

Los Angeles FC shows mixed form with DDWLD and only 1 win in their last 5 games

Statistics

Dallas averages 1.88 goals scored per game this season

Los Angeles FC concedes only 1.07 goals per game on average, but struggles away with 1.64 goals conceded per match

The home side scores 1.85 goals per game on average at home

Head-to-Head

Historical matchups favor the visitors with 3 wins for Los Angeles FC and 1 win for Dallas with 1 draw

The last direct encounter on March 8, 2026 ended in a 1-0 win for Los Angeles FC

Key Players

Logan Farrington has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games for Dallas

Joaquín Valiente shows rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games

Armindo Sieb scored 1 goal in 154 minutes of play for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Sirois represents Dallas in goal with an average rating of 7.14 this season

Hugo Lloris protects the net for Los Angeles FC with rising form in recent games

Influences

Toyota Stadium features high-scoring matches with an average of 3.4 goals per game

80% of games at this venue recently ended with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals

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