Match report →
Los Angeles FC – Vancouver Whitecaps1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Los Angeles FC
1.42
Total xG
2.97
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Los Angeles FC | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ryan Hollingshead on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Thomas Müller on the bench (9 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Mathías Laborda on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Visitor attack: Vancouver Whitecaps average 2.22 goals per game this season and averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Model prediction: The mathematical model assigns a 39% win probability to the away team compared to 34% for a home victory
- Key goalscorers: Brian White (17 goals) and Denis Bouanga (14 goals) headline their respective attacks
Risks
- Key absence for visitors: T. Müller is injured, removing 9 season goals from Vancouver Whitecaps
- Form drop for Los Angeles FC: Averaging only 1.4 goals per match recently compared to 1.72 in the season overall
All probabilities
Result
Los Angeles FC34%
Draw27%
Vancouver Whitecaps39%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
Los Angeles FC or draw61%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw67%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Los Angeles FC: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)
- Los Angeles FC: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)
Lineups
Los Angeles FC 4-2-3-1 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 5 R. Porteous
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 20 S. Vasquez Cabrera
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 9 A. Sieb
- 7 H. Son
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 99 D. Bouanga
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 28 T. Johnson
- 20 A. Cubas
- 8 O. Larraz
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 25 R. Gauld
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 81 L. Walta
- 47 M. Aiyenero
- 8 M. Delgado
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 31 C. Carter
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 6 I. Lima
- 33 A. Long
- 90 T. Mihalic
- 44 C. Diaz
- 49 C. Kosakoff
- 43 T. dos Santos Rebelo
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 70 R. Muati Modesto
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 13 T. Müller
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 3 S. Adekugbe
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 4 R. Veselinović
- 23 A. Cvetković
- 15 S. Ramírez Maya
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