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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - New York RB

09/12/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.4
Total xG
2.6
New York RB
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CCNYR

Columbus Crew

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.56
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.02
Mohamed Farsi on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Taha Habroune on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

New York RB

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.30
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.27
Cade Cowell on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Emil Forsberg  on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    New York RB: 69% of all goals in the first half (9 of 13, last 12 games)

  • 4
    New York RB: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

29%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Columbus Crew (1.42 home goals) faces an extremely vulnerable New York RB away defense conceding 2.5 goals per game on average
  • Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis favors the home side with a 72% probability for a home win or draw
  • Tactical dominance: Columbus Crew averaged 57% possession in recent matches, controlling the tempo of their games
Risk Factors
  • Mohamed Farsi, Taha Habroune missing, only 69% of seasonal goal threat available
  • High physical demand for New York RB with only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Columbus Crew averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Columbus Crew (13th place, 23 points) host New York RB (12th place, 27 points)

Major League Soccer match on September 12, 2026, 11:30 PM

Both teams fight for crucial points in the lower section of the table

Form

Columbus Crew shows a downward trend with four losses in the last five games (LLLWL)

The only bright spot was the 3-0 home win against Colorado Rapids

New York RB is winless in five games (LDLDL)

Most recently they suffered a 0-2 away defeat at Los Angeles FC

Statistics

Columbus Crew scores an average of 1.42 goals and concedes 1.17 at home

New York RB struggles defensively away, conceding 2.5 goals per match

Columbus Crew has kept four clean sheets in home matches

New York RB managed only one clean sheet in ten away games

Head-to-Head

The historical record shows two wins for New York RB, one for Columbus Crew, and two draws

The last head-to-head match on May 13, 2026 ended in a 3-2 victory for New York RB

The goal difference is even at 7-7 across five matches

Key Players

Brais MĂ©ndez has recorded two goals and one assist this season

Santiago RodrĂ­guez stands out with two goals in two matches and a rating of 7.73

Gonzalo Tapia has registered one goal and one assist

Julian Hall leads New York RB with nine goals and three assists

Jorge Ruvalcaba contributed seven goals this season

Ronald Donkor has provided four assists so far

Goalkeepers

Patrick Schulte has 24 appearances and kept four clean sheets

Ethan Horvath also played 24 games but kept only two clean sheets

Influences

Columbus Crew benefits from home advantage at Lower.com Field on grass

Stadium statistics indicate a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.2 goals per game

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