Match report →
Columbus Crew – New York RB0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Columbus Crew
1.45
Total xG
2.59
New York RB
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Columbus Crew | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.56 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Mohamed Farsi on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Taha Habroune on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Cade Cowell on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Emil Forsberg on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Columbus Crew (1.42 home goals) faces an extremely vulnerable New York RB away defense conceding 2.5 goals per game on average
- Model Prediction: Mathematical analysis favors the home side with a 72% probability for a home win or draw
- Tactical dominance: Columbus Crew averaged 57% possession in recent matches, controlling the tempo of their games
Risks
- Mohamed Farsi, Taha Habroune missing, only 69% of seasonal goal threat available
- High physical demand for New York RB with only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Columbus Crew averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Columbus Crew43%
Draw29%
New York RB28%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw72%
New York RB or draw57%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Columbus Crew: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- New York RB: 69% of all goals in the first half (9 of 13, last 12 games)
- New York RB: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Columbus Crew 3-4-3 · New York RB 4-3-3
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 11 B. Lennon
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 26 T. Parker
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 37 M. Sofo
- 17 C. Harper
- 16 J. Hall
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
Substitutes
- 3 E. Bailly
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 7 D. Chambost
- 14 A. Sejdic
- 16 T. Habroune
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 24 E. Bush
- 77 J. Martínez
- 6 R. Voloder
- 7 C. Cowell
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 59 D. Padelford
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 92 D. Nelich
- 60 S. Kone
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