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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - Inter Miami

09/27/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.2
Total xG
2.8
Inter Miami
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CCIM

Columbus Crew

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.66
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Brais Méndez not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 98% available)

Inter Miami

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Germán Berterame not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Telasco Segovia not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists)
Ian Fray not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Columbus Crew: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Inter Miami: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 4 goals (80', 83', 89', 90+6')

  • 4
    Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Inter Miami averaged 6.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Historical dominance: Inter Miami secured 4 wins in their last 5 head-to-head matches against Columbus Crew
  • Offensive trend: Inter Miami currently scores more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average of 2.5
Risk Factors
  • Squad absences for the visitors: Germán Berterame, Telasco Segovia, and Ian Fray are missing, leaving only 77% of their usual starting strength
  • Defensive vulnerability for Inter Miami: The team concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away match
Overview

Columbus Crew (14th place, 26 points) host Inter Miami (3rd place, 46 points) at Lower.com Field

MLS match on September 27, 2026, 11:00 PM

The visitors travel as favorites against the 14th-placed side

Form

Columbus Crew show inconsistent form

Form string: LWLLW with 2 wins and 3 losses

Inter Miami remain unbeaten in five matches with a form string of WDDDD

Statistics

Inter Miami boast an explosive attack averaging 2.42 goals scored per game

Columbus Crew concede an average of 1.62 goals per match

Lower.com Field averages 2.8 total goals per match

Head-to-Head

Inter Miami dominate head-to-head history with 4 wins in 5 matches

Columbus Crew are yet to secure a victory against Miami in this period

The last direct encounter ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

Santiago Rodríguez has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games with a 7.56 average rating

Mohamed Farsi contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 appearances

Lionel Messi dominates the league with 20 goals and 12 assists in 23 appearances

Not nominated for the hosts: Brais Méndez (3 goals, 1 assist)

Not nominated for the visitors: Germán Berterame (7 goals, 4 assists), Telasco Segovia (3 goals, 8 assists), Ian Fray (1 goal, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Patrick Schulte starts in goal for the hosts with 5 clean sheets this season

Rocco Ríos Novo guards the goal for the visitors in this match

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Lower.com Field

Columbus Crew average 1.42 goals scored per home game

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