Major League Soccer
New York RB - St. Louis City
09/30/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.1
1.6
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
8%2:2
6%0:2
6%The Lab
- 1St. Louis City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- 2St. Louis City: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 3St. Louis City: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- 4St. Louis City: 62% of all goals in the first half (18 of 29, last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
27%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- St. Louis City is scoring more frequently in recent matches with an average of 3.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.73
- New York RB is missing Julian Hall, Ronald Donkor, and Adri Mehmeti, leaving them with only 78% of their regular starting strength
- St. Louis City averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.0 for New York RB
Risk Factors
- St. Louis City concedes an average of 1.90 goals per away match this season
- Limited data on head-to-head history with no historical matches available in the dataset
- New York RB averages only 1.29 goals per home match this season
Overview
New York RB (8th place, 33 points) hosts St. Louis City (5th place, 44 points) at the Sports Illustrated Stadium
Major League Soccer match on September 30, 2026, 11:30 PM
St. Louis City enters as the favored side while New York RB seeks to close the gap to the top
Form
New York RB form across all competitions is LDLWW
St. Louis City form across all competitions is DWDWW
New York RB recently secured 2 consecutive wins
St. Louis City is undefeated in 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws
Statistics
New York RB averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded per match this season
St. Louis City averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per match
At home New York RB averages 1.29 goals scored
Away from home St. Louis City concedes an average of 1.90 goals while scoring 1.70
Head-to-Head
No historical head-to-head matches found in the provided dataset
The focus remains entirely on the current season performance
Key Players
Cade Cowell has 2 goals and 6 assists in 24 matches for New York RB
Jorge Ruvalcaba has contributed 7 goals this season for New York RB
Rafael Navarro scored 4 goals in 4 matches for St. Louis City
Goalkeepers
Ethan Horvath has kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches for New York RB
Roman Bürki has kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches for St. Louis City
Influences
The match will be played on grass at the Sports Illustrated Stadium
Venue statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match and an 80% BTTS rate
The model predicts a 63% probability of both teams scoring