Match report →
Atlanta United – Toronto3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlanta United
1.74
Total xG
2.99
Toronto
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlanta United | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Tristan Muyumba on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ajani Fortune on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Lewis Morgan on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away: Toronto averages 0.93 goals scored per game away in the league this season and 1.8 goals conceded per game
- Defense: Atlanta United allowed 1.21 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 2.2 goals per game
Risks
- Form: Toronto earned 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Atlanta United 1 win from their last 5 matches
- Table: Toronto sits 12th in the league this season with 39 points, Atlanta United 14th with 30 points
All probabilities
Result
Atlanta United47%
Draw26%
Toronto26%
Double chance
Atlanta United or draw74%
Toronto or draw53%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.74 : 1.26, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toronto: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 2 goals (90+3', 90+5')
- Toronto: 81% of all goals in the second half (17 of 21, last 12 games)
- Toronto: 8 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Atlanta United: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Atlanta United 4-3-3 · Toronto 4-3-3
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 11 G. Galoppo
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 36 B. Embolo
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 15 N. Gomis
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 21 J. Osorio
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 9 J. Sargent
- 20 D. Salloi
Substitutes
- 7 S. Alzate
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 20 L. Brennan
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 47 M. Edwards
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 22 F. Picault
- 35 A. Fortune
- 27 A. Gordon
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 90 L. Morgan
- 38 J. Gilman
- 96 R. Chukwu
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