Match report →
Real Salt Lake – LA Galaxy2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Salt Lake
2.24
Total xG
3.43
LA Galaxy
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Salt Lake | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Dominik Marczuk not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Robert Taylor on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Erik Thommy on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Real Salt Lake average 1.94 goals per game at home this season, LA Galaxy concede 2.12 per game away
- Form: Real Salt Lake won 3 of their last 5 matches, while LA Galaxy won 2 of their last 5 matches
Risks
- Head-to-head: LA Galaxy won 3 of the 5 meetings since May 2024, while Real Salt Lake won 1 in that period
- Attack: LA Galaxy scored 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches, Real Salt Lake scored 2 per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Real Salt Lake60%
Draw22%
LA Galaxy18%
Double chance
Real Salt Lake or draw82%
LA Galaxy or draw40%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.24 : 1.19, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LA Galaxy: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- LA Galaxy with João Klauss starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (10/17 games, last 30)
- Real Salt Lake: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Salt Lake: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Real Salt Lake 3-4-3 · LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 44 L. De Fougerolles
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 23 C. Booth
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
- 9 M. Guilavogui
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 26 H. Miller
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 15 J. Haak
- 14 J. Nelson
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 11 H. Lozano Bahena
- 18 M. Reus
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 99 J. De Mello
Substitutes
- 4 L. Engel
- 25 C. Guske
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 15 J. Glad
- 19 A. Piol
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 34 L. Moisa
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 98 A. Katranis
- 7 K. Furuhashi
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 22 E. Wynder
- 27 E. Thommy
- 21 R. Taylor
- 2 L. Calegari
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →