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St. Louis City – San Diego0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
2.20
Total xG
3.45
San Diego
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Cédric Bakambu on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Pirani on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jeppe Tverskov on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Aníbal Godoy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Manu Duah on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Elias Achouri not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: St. Louis City score 2.25 goals per game at home in the league this season, San Diego concede 2.06 per game away
- Standings: St. Louis City are 3rd in the league with 51 points, San Diego sit 13th with 35 points
Risks
- Form: St. Louis City have 1 win and 3 losses from their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: San Diego have won 2 of the 3 previous meetings against St. Louis City, with 1 draw
- Rest days: St. Louis City have had 2 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City58%
Draw22%
San Diego20%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw80%
San Diego or draw42%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.20 : 1.25, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Diego: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: 63% of all goals in the first half (19 of 30, last 12 games)
- San Diego: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
- St. Louis City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-1-2 · San Diego 4-3-3
St. Louis City
- 39 B. Lundt
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 6 C. Wallem
- 8 C. Durkin
- 24 D. Edelman
- 14 T. Totland
- 19 C. Holse
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
- 77 S. Jeong
San Diego
- 13 P. Sisniega Fink
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 32 I. Murphy
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 15 P. Soma
- 8 O. Valakari
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 14 B. Zamblé
Substitutes
- 42 D. Downs
- 11 S. Becher
- 99 J. Orozco
- 4 M. Fall
- 27 F. Fol
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 18 C. Brunet
- 31 C. Olivares
- 48 R. Lynch
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 20 A. Godoy
- 26 M. Duah
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 36 D. Mimbang Nyangono
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