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Seattle Sounders – CF Montréal1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Seattle Sounders
1.94
Total xG
3.05
CF Montréal
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Seattle Sounders | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Paul Arriola on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Gomez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Danny Musovski on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Prince Owusu not in squad (15 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Daniel Ríos on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matty Longstaff on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Luca Petrasso on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 80% of goal output missing (only 26% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Seattle Sounders won 4 of their last 5 matches, CF Montréal lost 4 of their last 5
- Home/Away: Seattle Sounders scores 1.64 goals per game at home, CF Montréal concedes 2.71 per game away
- Table: Seattle Sounders sits 7th with 41 points from 29 matches, CF Montréal is 15th with 24 points
Risks
- Rest days: Seattle Sounders with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Seattle Sounders55%
Draw25%
CF Montréal20%
Double chance
Seattle Sounders or draw80%
CF Montréal or draw45%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 18 total)
- CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Seattle Sounders: 78% of all goals in the second half (14 of 18, last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Jordan Morris starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (13/9 games, last 29)
- Seattle Sounders: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
Lineups
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 · CF Montréal 4-2-3-1
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 16 A. Roldan
- 28 Y. Gómez Andrade
- 4 R. Sailor
- 5 N. Tolo
- 31 H. Dotson
- 7 C. Roldan
- 8 C. Clark
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 13 J. Morris
- 9 D. Joveljić
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 2 J. Neal
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 5 B. Craig
- 28 V. Radojević
- 6 S. Piette
- 22 V. Loturi
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 21 F. Herbers
- 23 N. Streit
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
Substitutes
- 27 J. Ferreira
- 17 P. Arriola
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 25 J. Ragen
- 35 A. Lopez
- 37 S. Brunell
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 90 S. Gomez
- 45 P. Kingston
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 29 O. Escobar
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 41 S. Keita
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