Match report →
New York RB – Atlanta United3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
New York RB
1.92
Total xG
3.46
Atlanta United
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York RB | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.82 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Mohammed Sofo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: New York RB is 10th in the league with 39 points, Atlanta United is 13th with 33 points
- Home/Away: New York RB scores 1.5 goals per game at home in the league, Atlanta United 1.06 per game away
- xG: New York RB generated 2.4 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.4 goals per game
Risks
- Form: New York RB lost 4 of their last 5 games, Atlanta United got 2 wins from their last 5 games
- Head-to-head: Atlanta United won 2 of the last 5 meetings against New York RB, with 2 draws and 1 loss
All probabilities
Result
New York RB46%
Draw24%
Atlanta United30%
Double chance
New York RB or draw70%
Atlanta United or draw54%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.92 : 1.53, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlanta United: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New York RB: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- New York RB: 7 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- New York RB: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
New York RB 4-3-3 · Atlanta United 4-3-3
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 12 D. Nealis
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 59 D. Padelford
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 60 S. Kone
- 48 R. Donkor
- 7 C. Cowell
- 16 J. Hall
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
Atlanta United
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 55 T. Jacob
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 11 G. Galoppo
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 36 B. Embolo
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
Substitutes
- 6 R. Voloder
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 79 R. Mosquera
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 26 T. Parker
- 1 A. Marcucci
- 91 M. Jiménez Murillo
- 92 D. Nelich
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 20 L. Brennan
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 47 M. Edwards
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 22 F. Picault
- 35 A. Fortune
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