Match report →
SJ Earthquakes – Nashville SC1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
SJ Earthquakes
1.47
Total xG
3.07
Nashville SC
1.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SJ Earthquakes | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.20 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Ousseni Bouda on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Paul Marie on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Elias Saad on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Reed Baker-Whiting on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Nashville SC is 1st in the league with 66 points from 29 games, SJ Earthquakes is 4th with 47 points from 29 games
- Attack: Nashville SC averaged 3 goals per game in their last 5 games
Risks
- Home: SJ Earthquakes averages 1.79 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Rest days: Nashville SC with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
SJ Earthquakes34%
Draw27%
Nashville SC40%
Double chance
SJ Earthquakes or draw60%
Nashville SC or draw66%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 11 of 11 games (100%)
- SJ Earthquakes: 9 of 21 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Nashville SC: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Nashville SC: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Austin: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- SJ Earthquakes: 31% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 16)
Lineups
SJ Earthquakes 5-3-2 · Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 18 R. Roberts
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 34 B. Leroux
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 23 E. Löwen
- 19 P. Judd
- 11 T. Werner
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 9 S. Surridge
Substitutes
- 3 P. Marie
- 6 I. Harkes
- 7 O. Bouda
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 36 E. Edwards Jr.
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 21 N. Buck
- 25 M. Floriani
- 9 L. Jovanovic
- 11 E. Saad
- 1 J. Willis
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 19 A. Muyl
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 22 J. Bauer
- 41 W. Madrigal Molina
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
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