Match report →
Orlando City – New England1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Orlando City
1.81
Total xG
3.30
New England
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Orlando City | New England |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.51 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Peyton Miller not in squad (7 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Orlando City average 2 goals per game at home in the league, while New England concede 1.62 away
- Head-to-head: Orlando City have won 3 of the 5 meetings since 2024 against New England, with 1 draw and 1 loss
- Goals: In Orlando City's last 5 matches, there was an average of 2.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game
Risks
- Form: New England have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Orlando City have won 1
- Table: New England are 3rd in the league with 58 points from 33 matches, Orlando City are 9th with 43 points
All probabilities
Result
Orlando City44%
Draw25%
New England30%
Double chance
Orlando City or draw70%
New England or draw56%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.82 : 1.48, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New England: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Iván Angulo: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- New England: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Orlando City 4-4-2 · New England 4-2-3-1
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 27 V. Nogueira de Oliveira
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 10 M. Ojeda
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 12 I. Feingold
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 8 M. Polster
- 14 J. Yueill
- 41 L. Langoni
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 99 D. Turgeman
Substitutes
- 9 D. Dike
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 22 J. Ellis
- 24 G. Dorsey
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 66 J. Wynder
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 21 B. Raines
- 33 D. Parisian
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
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